Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65f7e805c8337c01ed1d156885e95b6d4dda57d067e49a35f25051e335f102e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 636.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 368.21$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 16c | 330.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 18c | 323.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 79c | 273.49$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 35c | 228.62$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 176.8$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 145.49$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 38c | 145.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 129.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 62c | 126.28$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 32c | 124.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 112.09$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 18c | 105.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 71c | 94.73$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 44c | 91.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 72c | 74.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 50c | 71.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 63.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 63.51$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 25c | 63.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 28c | 60.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 65c | 52.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 52.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 48.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 26c | 46.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…d314backed No | 66c | 43.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 41.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 40.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 40.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 63c | 38.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 53c | 38.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 73c | 37.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 67c | 32.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…474cbacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 42c | 28.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbabc…f582backed No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 61c | 27.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 26.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb922…1d3ebacked Yes | 38c | 26.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 74c | 25.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 69c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed36…ac89backed No | 74c | 22.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b2…8f14backed No | 71c | 20.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x136a…70e8backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x640c…7010backed No | 68c | 19.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 69c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 67c | 17.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 17.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 16.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.