TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7234…4c92

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
133
Categories scored
22
Categories below 50
16

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 54 out of 100; worst Movies at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2026, EDT4339.5%17 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.4
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+56.2%+$10
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+48.6%+$45.8
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+63.1%+$58.05
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+361.4%+$156.65
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+139.5%+$87.36
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.88
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.4
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+80.2%+$44.5
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+73.9%+$42.5
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$15
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$114.5
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.57
Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.69
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.85
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.1
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+412.8%+$80.5
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$5
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.5
Will Vance visit the Middle East by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.5
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$24
Will Marco Rubio visit Israel by March 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+143.9%+$29.5
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30.5
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT1250%6 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+43%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.8
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+65.3%+$15.8
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$16.5
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+108.5%+$161.64
Will Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut be the next prime minister of Thailand?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+51.7%+$37.49
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$61
Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win fewer than 120 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$14.36
Will Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+31.6%+$3.8
Will Pheu Thai Party (PT) finish in third place by number of seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$21.2
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$56
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$11.54
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 1% and 2%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+809.1%+$356
All 12 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+91.9%+$71.85
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+27.1%+$12.8
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $640b on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$4.6
Will Grok win the okbet trading competition?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+47.1%+$6.4
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$108
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+33%+$62
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$206
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$19
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$124.5
All 9 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-63.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$16
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.5
Will The Singers win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.93
Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 38m and 42m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+28.8%+$33.5
Will "GOAT" Second Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 17.5m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$13.4
Will "Mercy" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$12.8
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 90m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$38.11
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 90m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$26.8
All 8 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-59.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 10, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-44.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Weather — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 28, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-58.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Tweets — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Stocks — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick37cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.8
Bulls vs. Pistonsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$379Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2024, EST+177.8%+$672.98
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$697Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$696.83
Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$2,697Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$2,697
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+39.2%+$33
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rays vs. Angelsbacked Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$816Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$816
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$19.1
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.