World Politics · resolved market
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10ed6b97583455a712796c61b55f9c34a38e5b480df644cc4e63f2ccc3e8a839
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 24c | 1,380$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.34 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 73c | 1,254$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.11 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +168.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 7c | 1,200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.81 | 110 | 20.9%23 W · 87 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c0…2713backed No | 11c | 918.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +169.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 6c | 583.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 132 | 25%33 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 40c | 572.5$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 7c | 546.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 4c | 441.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x058f…4883backed Yes | 60c | 434.55$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 57cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 6c | 420.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked No | 8c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked Yes | 67c | 372.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.7 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 26c | 319.71$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.06 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 61c | 280$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked No | 4c | 270$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 7c | 258.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 9c | 252.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc77c…0d02backed Yes | 75c | 246$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 73cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed No | 10c | 209.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 6c | 187.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…847bbacked No | 7c | 179.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 11c | 170.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 8c | 161.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 8c | 157.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 8c | 142.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked No | 27c | 127.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb366…c001backed No | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…b7f1backed No | 22c | 108.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 49c | 101.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…c987backed Yes | 76c | 100.35$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3650…d17cbacked Yes | 76c | 88.29$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 46c | 72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736b…2e90backed No | 29c | 70.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63db…f90bbacked Yes | 76c | 62.22$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…7fc8backed Yes | 74c | 61.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…4c92backed No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 75c | 56.18$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffcd…1666backed Yes | 76c | 54.94$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 76c | 52.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e3…6867backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked Yes | 63c | 48.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…8ec6backed No | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b38abacked No | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…2fffbacked No | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.33per pick | 41cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb0…2b36backed No | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf0…9180backed No | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x83fa…d3fbbacked No | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 34cpaid | -74%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…025abacked No | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa552…3306backed No | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa74b…3241backed No | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe518…f0fcbacked No | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…a821backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b66…c465backed Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e3…e426backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 39c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Yes | 62c | 36.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed Yes | 76c | 36.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…a10dbacked No | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x825c…dfa0backed Yes | 78c | 30.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +159.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…4012backed No | 38c | 26.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ce…57c4backed Yes | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf26e…cf82backed Yes | 74c | 25.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13ff…8bd4backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…e1c8backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3806…d265backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4072…c225backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf145…2318backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…c62ebacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf34f…44eebacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 31?this page
- Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 16?No won
- Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?No won
- Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 20?Yes won
- Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 21?Yes won
- Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.