TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3650…d17c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
97
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: CS2, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category CS2 at 55 out of 100; worst NHL at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT6141%25 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 61 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Adidas be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.94
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$327Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$327.05
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+582%+$1,200.11
Will Michael Olise win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.21
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$760
Will Lamine Yamal score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.88
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+54.1%+$84.24
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.67
Will Nike be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$57.78
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,314Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+30%+$394.4
Will 9+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+25%+$30.94
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.18
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$114.25
Will Erling Haaland score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$61.74
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$112.57
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.9
Will the announcers say "Oh my God" or "Oh my Goodness" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.62
Will the announcers say "Really good play" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.96
Will the announcers say "Foul" 7+ times during the New Zealand vs Belgium FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+203%+$31.87
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Colombia vs Portugal FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$247.98
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$649Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$649.26
Will the announcers say "Corner" 15+ times during the Colombia vs Portugal FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$320
Will the announcers say "Challenge" 5+ times during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$344Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$343.67
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.84
Will the announcers say "History" during the New Zealand vs Belgium FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$740Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$260
Showing 25 of 61 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$34
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winnerbacked Solary · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winnerbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$265Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$235
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffsbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$225
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winnerbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$353Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$313.41
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffsbacked Eintracht Spandau · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffsbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$266Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$266.28
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSIbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$370
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffsbacked Vivo Keyd Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$176.84
All 10 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 20, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+64.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-65.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 26, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.01
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+29.6%+$42.92
All 2 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Valorant — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$33.14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 26, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffsbacked Yellow Submarine · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$680Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$320
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.44
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.