TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
LYONof LYON, Team Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$595,149
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$649,822

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $595,149 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 387 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf201…527ebacked Team Liquid20c73,551$14,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,548.821,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked Team Liquid46c54,029$24,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,623.2214448.6%70 W · 74 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked LYON55c44,000$24,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,937.032,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xffe9…a70ebacked LYON54c41,234$22,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,967.642240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Team Liquid47c33,000$15,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,5301,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed LYON57c24,000$13,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,317.9391854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Team Liquid49c18,814$9,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,300.3418953.4%101 W · 88 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Team Liquid44c14,856$6,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,582.791,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Team Liquid49c14,115$6,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,966.631,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Team Liquid48c10,411$4,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,979.8190348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55a1…db28backed LYON50c8,993$4,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,496.282250%11 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed LYON53c8,888$4,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,152.891,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f9c…b3e0backed LYON58c8,617$4,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,634.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed Team Liquid42c8,409$3,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,531.9917133.9%58 W · 113 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…cc01backed LYON58c8,140$4,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,439.717439.7%69 W · 105 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb589…91e3backed Team Liquid26c7,571$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.9951348%246 W · 267 L+25.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked LYON53c7,000$3,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,277.291,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Team Liquid47c6,420$3,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,010.0748149.7%239 W · 242 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked Team Liquid47c6,233$2,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,925.371,50154.5%818 W · 683 L+34.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d2b…afc5backed LYON74c5,938$4,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,570.133754.1%20 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed LYON71c5,738$4,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,660.9276142%320 W · 441 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked LYON66c5,737$3,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,940.841,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd32f…1496backed LYON76c5,663$4,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.742157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Team Liquid50c5,646$2,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,814.8759554.1%322 W · 273 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed Team Liquid51c5,401$2,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,746.7854756.9%311 W · 236 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed LYON56c5,307$2,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,346.2657957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a13…4d34backed Team Liquid37c5,256$1,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,934.3112433.9%42 W · 82 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93f6…4814backed Team Liquid45c5,166$2,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,324.522737%10 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed Team Liquid3c5,150$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.7594134.5%325 W · 616 L+33.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked LYON71c5,072$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,472.3195041.6%395 W · 555 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Team Liquid31c4,776$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.4567760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked LYON65c4,683$3,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,642.461,06154.7%580 W · 481 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Team Liquid50c4,484$2,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,220.321,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52f9…1fb2backed LYON59c4,178$2,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,724.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked LYON51c4,111$2,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,014.5282161%501 W · 320 L+1.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe31d…a83dbacked Team Liquid6c4,107$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Team Liquid38c4,100$1,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,566.941,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee80…f34ebacked LYON55c4,000$2,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,787.335159.5%209 W · 142 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked LYON55c3,865$2,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,744.6298956.8%562 W · 427 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked Team Liquid41c3,567$1,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,447.2967553.5%361 W · 314 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e62…f6ffbacked Team Liquid48c3,500$1,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,688.279248.9%45 W · 47 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd65…5726backed LYON55c3,500$1,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,575.215453.9%83 W · 71 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed LYON54c3,500$1,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,604.973,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Team Liquid42c3,223$1,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,368.848448.6%235 W · 249 L+12.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ff8…5e5dbacked LYON55c3,088$1,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,404.3212953.5%69 W · 60 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed LYON68c3,046$2,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.531,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda16…ac2bbacked LYON54c3,037$1,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,396.915147%71 W · 80 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Team Liquid30c3,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f84…202ebacked Team Liquid49c3,000$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,48095847.6%456 W · 502 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed LYON77c2,998$2,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.562,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Team Liquid51c2,835$1,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,435.371,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf268…960fbacked Team Liquid7c2,818$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21047453.4%253 W · 221 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8261…a3f1backed LYON55c2,807$1,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,268.2718467.9%125 W · 59 L+11.8wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed Team Liquid40c2,603$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.1886251.3%442 W · 420 L+51.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed LYON50c2,500$1,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,237.532,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8d…a7a8backed Team Liquid42c2,500$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0504431.8%14 W · 30 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-9.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed LYON50c2,500$1,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.9839851.8%206 W · 192 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x974b…076ebacked LYON52c2,328$1,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,117.239457.4%54 W · 40 L+11.2wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+36.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x092b…614ebacked Team Liquid45c2,222$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00015644.2%69 W · 87 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdcb…36c9backed Team Liquid47c2,076$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.582236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+119.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Liquid44c2,038$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.582,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b05…c092backed LYON50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0002100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed LYON51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98089943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed LYON58c1,998$1,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.8855844.6%249 W · 309 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbefa…cbbebacked Team Liquid11c1,818$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed LYON57c1,800$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77482953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed LYON52c1,798$934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.5166458%385 W · 279 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed LYON53c1,731$922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.472,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x876b…d4a1backed LYON55c1,714$943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.36460.9%39 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked Team Liquid40c1,619$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.4583560.8%508 W · 327 L+45.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xedf3…9567backed LYON50c1,615$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.53100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+63.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9867…ea53backed Team Liquid51c1,593$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.5413752.6%72 W · 65 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+17.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked LYON56c1,588$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.4635341.9%148 W · 205 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9a9…3ba9backed LYON51c1,569$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.6333845.3%153 W · 185 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Team Liquid32c1,547$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.0186943.2%375 W · 494 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed LYON79c1,516$1,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.938439.8%153 W · 231 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3de…6fe8backed LYON75c1,500$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3755867.2%39 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked Team Liquid20c1,481$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.524326.7%65 W · 178 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x450e…4fddbacked LYON52c1,446$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.914555.2%80 W · 65 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3ea7…7fc0backed LYON53c1,400$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6581450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40cf…2748backed LYON67c1,380$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.232160.7%195 W · 126 L+0.8wins0.00per pick60cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Team Liquid45c1,345$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.537339.7%29 W · 44 L-9.3wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-26.8%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Team Liquid49c1,315$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.0431153.4%166 W · 145 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Liquid16c1,290$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.411,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed LYON78c1,279$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.2437754.1%204 W · 173 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Liquid27c1,277$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.623,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed LYON56c1,276$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.1585652.2%447 W · 409 L+34.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked LYON56c1,258$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.5822455.4%124 W · 100 L-1.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e42…a2bcbacked LYON56c1,255$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.77955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Team Liquid4c1,250$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5566116.5%109 W · 552 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6463…1f5cbacked Team Liquid45c1,230$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.517143.3%74 W · 97 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed Team Liquid45c1,200$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54028448.6%138 W · 146 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked LYON52c1,200$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.121,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaf…d959backed Team Liquid43c1,163$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006246.8%29 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2269…6233backed LYON55c1,160$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51725065.6%164 W · 86 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4627…7c23backed Team Liquid48c1,154$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.7939450.3%198 W · 196 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bab…6832backed Team Liquid43c1,152$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.2950845.3%230 W · 278 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Team Liquid43c1,047$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45090537.5%339 W · 566 L-18.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed LYON63c1,039$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.921,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Team Liquid46c1,036$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.9926635%93 W · 173 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.