TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
LYONof LYON, Team Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$921,563
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,020,278

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $921,563 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 466 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5286…0d47backed Team Liquid16c149,515$23,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,955.6527637.3%103 W · 173 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked Team Liquid29c90,868$26,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,351.735639.3%22 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+25.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked Team Liquid46c90,000$41,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,549.8314448.6%70 W · 74 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked LYON54c84,527$45,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,831.871,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Team Liquid45c50,501$22,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,560.131,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked LYON56c35,868$20,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,810.5957246%263 W · 309 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked LYON74c18,574$13,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,862.941,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Team Liquid46c17,500$8,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,124.981,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a4c…1f30backed Team Liquid48c17,000$8,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,151.8616356.4%92 W · 71 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked Team Liquid46c16,604$7,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,558.851,50154.5%818 W · 683 L+34.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Team Liquid46c11,771$5,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,435.941,20743.5%525 W · 682 L-14.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Team Liquid47c11,250$5,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,287.512642.9%54 W · 72 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed LYON63c10,576$6,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,936.6143442.4%184 W · 250 L+18.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f03…b1bebacked Team Liquid48c10,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,799.951,13252.5%594 W · 538 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed LYON53c9,999$5,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,699.6425342.7%108 W · 145 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x50e8…0105backed LYON52c9,152$4,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,389.452532%8 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-34.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed LYON56c8,930$5,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,929.22965.5%19 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x29de…df7fbacked LYON53c8,470$4,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,980.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe6…7027backed LYON77c7,691$5,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,772.571546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+23.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6463…1f5cbacked LYON76c7,407$5,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,789.5417143.3%74 W · 97 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0843…ec56backed LYON54c6,311$3,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,903.35250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed LYON72c6,280$4,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,783.5276142%320 W · 441 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd32f…1496backed LYON72c6,280$4,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,783.522157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d2b…afc5backed LYON72c6,107$4,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,734.743754.1%20 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed LYON53c6,050$3,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,843.51,30838.6%505 W · 803 L-64.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Team Liquid49c6,029$2,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,93617647.7%84 W · 92 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed LYON54c6,000$3,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,76082352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bba…cf14backed LYON54c5,889$3,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,715.8223938.1%91 W · 148 L-16.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed LYON53c5,400$2,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,537.991,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x005a…bccebacked Team Liquid44c5,368$2,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,386.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked LYON72c5,234$3,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,486.4695041.6%395 W · 555 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6768…4ef1backed Team Liquid44c5,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20010449%51 W · 53 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Team Liquid46c5,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30067552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed LYON80c4,647$3,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$936.393,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf57…3b46backed LYON54c4,582$2,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,108.76580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+33.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96f8…2560backed LYON54c4,444$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,044.4437660.9%229 W · 147 L-28.1wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-11.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf582…9cb0backed LYON53c4,415$2,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,075.14666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cae…a00abacked Team Liquid47c4,386$2,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,061.456063.3%38 W · 22 L+6.4wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+38.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8261…a3f1backed LYON54c3,887$2,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,796.5318467.9%125 W · 59 L+11.8wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8082…3974backed LYON54c3,845$2,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,768.7450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf09…b8c5backed LYON54c3,834$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,763.56540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed LYON53c3,638$1,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,709.8959554.1%322 W · 273 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x88aa…2f5ebacked LYON71c3,565$2,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.881520%3 W · 12 L-4.1wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-70.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0b57…090dbacked LYON54c3,513$1,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,616.03666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed LYON54c3,500$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,61054756.9%311 W · 236 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89dd…f662backed Team Liquid45c3,363$1,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,513.39366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb84…5fb5backed LYON52c3,298$1,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,570.221118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed LYON54c3,213$1,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,477.8720557.1%117 W · 88 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5b7…3e1cbacked LYON53c3,100$1,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,45734651.2%177 W · 169 L+1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa44b…adfdbacked LYON54c3,005$1,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,382.51250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed LYON53c3,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,41015046%69 W · 81 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked LYON72c2,896$2,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.271,06154.7%580 W · 481 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed LYON79c2,781$2,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.831,05746.1%487 W · 570 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8d3…a012backed LYON54c2,734$1,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,261.33475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+23.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f6e…b0e0backed LYON51c2,692$1,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.17366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+50.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed LYON67c2,569$1,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840.431,82639.9%728 W · 1,098 L-61.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed LYON53c2,543$1,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,201.4354529.7%162 W · 383 L-34.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1448…e868backed LYON55c2,516$1,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.416434.4%22 W · 42 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-22.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed LYON54c2,500$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1501,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x74a8…df59backed LYON53c2,478$1,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,164.8636034.4%124 W · 236 L-21.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-8.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed LYON53c2,453$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,152.8314761.9%91 W · 56 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8144…8472backed LYON52c2,439$1,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,167.7310443.3%45 W · 59 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x974b…076ebacked Team Liquid45c2,400$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.979457.4%54 W · 40 L+11.2wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+36.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd02a…4771backed LYON56c2,354$1,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,035.4819232.8%63 W · 129 L-17.2wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-23.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4afb…ed2bbacked Team Liquid44c2,191$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.1711435.1%40 W · 74 L+0.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked LYON56c2,162$1,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.3894444.4%419 W · 525 L-31.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed Team Liquid47c2,148$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.42,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed LYON53c2,121$1,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996.871,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cde…96e2backed LYON71c2,037$1,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.794632.6%15 W · 31 L-5.8wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-38.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2230…c3b7backed LYON71c2,037$1,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.791136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-38.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked LYON54c2,037$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.0482161%501 W · 320 L+1.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed Team Liquid49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98064443%277 W · 367 L-27.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa39…bb64backed LYON55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90013561.5%83 W · 52 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Team Liquid46c2,000$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.991,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Team Liquid27c2,000$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.2422930.6%70 W · 159 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x53bf…7497backed Team Liquid44c1,910$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.54250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7097…e1debacked LYON72c1,910$1,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.319450%47 W · 47 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Liquid26c1,909$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.881,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked LYON71c1,894$1,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.3790537.5%339 W · 566 L-18.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked LYON54c1,894$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.0164749.9%323 W · 324 L-24.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x97ee…b868backed LYON79c1,859$1,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.566256.5%35 W · 27 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5409…79dbbacked LYON54c1,852$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.8530160.8%183 W · 118 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4377…74c2backed LYON54c1,819$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.526752.2%35 W · 32 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+30.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5ec6…e2debacked LYON55c1,805$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Team Liquid48c1,800$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8641,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed LYON54c1,793$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.3638640.4%156 W · 230 L-17.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ad9…0eaebacked LYON52c1,696$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.316851.2%86 W · 82 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8438…4831backed Team Liquid29c1,688$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.48633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eaf…a3a1backed Team Liquid47c1,668$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52f9…1fb2backed Team Liquid30c1,657$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Team Liquid12c1,631$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.9214136.9%52 W · 89 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57e1…c97fbacked LYON60c1,631$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.067353.4%39 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb6c…d38ebacked LYON54c1,622$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.1212850%64 W · 64 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x18f3…0c20backed Team Liquid47c1,600$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74716155.3%89 W · 72 L-0.6wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x824b…8386backed LYON69c1,584$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.4217457.5%100 W · 74 L-9.1wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c3a…5678backed LYON53c1,577$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.09966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Team Liquid42c1,548$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.141,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x787f…d40cbacked LYON52c1,547$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.5610855.6%60 W · 48 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed LYON54c1,500$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69066059.8%395 W · 265 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ea7…7fc0backed LYON55c1,400$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6301450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.