TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
LYONof LYON, Team Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$410,449
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$442,735

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $410,449 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 384 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe405…c67ebacked LYON49c35,967$17,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,207.7867760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked LYON46c27,606$12,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,860.411,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed LYON50c20,000$9,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,071.3791854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Team Liquid59c19,816$11,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,682.471,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Team Liquid1c16,684$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.8489347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5286…0d47backed Team Liquid51c15,000$7,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,649.9827637.3%103 W · 173 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Team Liquid51c14,028$7,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,180.561,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Team Liquid51c13,572$6,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,885.8790348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Liquid28c10,250$2,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,860.682,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed LYON44c9,040$3,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,093.691,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a4c…1f30backed Team Liquid51c8,600$4,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,362.6116356.4%92 W · 71 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked Team Liquid47c8,081$3,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,793.941,50154.5%818 W · 683 L+34.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Team Liquid53c7,777$4,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,121.771,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe31d…a83dbacked LYON34c6,828$2,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,517.13837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1926…83ccbacked LYON52c6,301$3,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,018.193551.4%18 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked Team Liquid37c6,016$2,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,201.241,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked LYON47c5,882$2,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,123.3657246%263 W · 309 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked LYON65c5,633$3,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,958.5667553.5%361 W · 314 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6373…a0b7backed Team Liquid32c5,347$1,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,687.329621.9%21 W · 75 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Team Liquid50c5,263$2,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,636.7618953.4%101 W · 88 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed LYON50c5,238$2,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,619.2513130.5%40 W · 91 L-13.9wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6625…fef4backed LYON37c5,084$1,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,177.913043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb589…91e3backed Team Liquid56c5,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,80051348%246 W · 267 L+25.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd32f…1496backed Team Liquid51c4,770$2,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,448.122157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Team Liquid51c4,710$2,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,393.9259554.1%322 W · 273 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Team Liquid1c4,500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456214.5%9 W · 53 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+92.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Team Liquid2c4,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807869.8%77 W · 709 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Team Liquid55c3,636$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00057957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked LYON67c3,367$2,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,105.3412557.6%72 W · 53 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e62…f6ffbacked LYON51c3,355$1,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,643.729248.9%45 W · 47 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Liquid43c3,160$1,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,369.152,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed LYON62c3,084$1,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,184.4563546.6%296 W · 339 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Team Liquid58c3,038$1,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,769.341,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed LYON49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,53015046%69 W · 81 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Team Liquid1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302181.8%4 W · 214 L+0.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid+37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked LYON48c3,000$1,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,569.6167250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Team Liquid50c2,949$1,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,474.2625546.3%118 W · 137 L+0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d2b…afc5backed Team Liquid51c2,891$1,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4693754.1%20 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74fc…a0bdbacked LYON48c2,866$1,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,488.2215457.8%89 W · 65 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedf3…9567backed LYON68c2,568$1,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.593100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+63.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ea6…180dbacked LYON49c2,500$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2755429.6%16 W · 38 L-7.7wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-40.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa113…bb53backed LYON47c2,347$1,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,240.438538.8%33 W · 52 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked LYON52c2,300$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.591,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Team Liquid51c2,223$1,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,138.272,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda16…ac2bbacked LYON49c2,000$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02515147%71 W · 80 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6768…4ef1backed Team Liquid52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.9910449%51 W · 53 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked LYON64c1,963$1,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.851,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Team Liquid52c1,923$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.041,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x092b…614ebacked LYON47c1,854$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$976.3315644.2%69 W · 87 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked LYON61c1,838$1,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.912,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked LYON43c1,800$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.552,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed LYON36c1,779$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,135.2786251.3%442 W · 420 L+51.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Team Liquid48c1,667$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80049847.2%235 W · 263 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Team Liquid49c1,590$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.341,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ea7…7fc0backed LYON53c1,400$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6581450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Team Liquid13c1,392$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.0655844.6%249 W · 309 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f41…5ffcbacked LYON50c1,370$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68523948.1%115 W · 124 L+0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed Team Liquid51c1,339$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.9960354.7%330 W · 273 L-2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdcb…36c9backed LYON50c1,338$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6692236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+119.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef98…68f7backed LYON46c1,319$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.6113145.8%60 W · 71 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ee…b868backed LYON48c1,312$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.66256.5%35 W · 27 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed LYON57c1,308$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.1986943.2%375 W · 494 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed LYON53c1,297$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.7562451.4%321 W · 303 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed LYON47c1,286$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.921,47748.3%713 W · 764 L+45.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd29b…96adbacked LYON72c1,250$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35016366.3%108 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x450e…4fddbacked Team Liquid19c1,248$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.8514555.2%80 W · 65 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed Team Liquid55c1,200$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.9828448.6%138 W · 146 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed LYON62c1,182$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.262,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Liquid52c1,173$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.6395041.6%395 W · 555 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Team Liquid50c1,150$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.091,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked LYON47c1,145$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.6837640.2%151 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…a2cbbacked LYON57c1,134$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.3124554.3%133 W · 112 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Team Liquid67c1,116$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.1635341.9%148 W · 205 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked Team Liquid1c1,100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.626297%44 W · 585 L-2.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Team Liquid29c1,097$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.6898956.8%562 W · 427 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…cc01backed Team Liquid10c1,074$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0617439.7%69 W · 105 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked LYON63c1,067$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.322,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed LYON48c1,042$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.6619053.2%101 W · 89 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5733…4c87backed LYON47c1,037$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.719748.2%95 W · 102 L+15.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+27.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d87…e214backed LYON28c1,035$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.2126661.7%164 W · 102 L+22.0wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked Team Liquid54c1,025$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.291,18548.1%570 W · 615 L-2.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd65…5726backed Team Liquid16c1,025$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16415453.9%83 W · 71 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f03…b1bebacked Team Liquid47c1,017$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.781,13252.5%594 W · 538 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Liquid32c1,000$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3151,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked LYON49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51086649.7%430 W · 436 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fbd…c4e4backed LYON39c1,000$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.552538.9%204 W · 321 L+18.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87fe…3cbebacked LYON53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4702755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5006…48cabacked LYON53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47010539%41 W · 64 L-8.4wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-13.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6b3…9441backed LYON49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51013240.9%54 W · 78 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Team Liquid1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105920%0 W · 592 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked LYON51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49048847.3%231 W · 257 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…cbbebacked Team Liquid10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x40cf…2748backed Team Liquid68c998.48$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.5832160.7%195 W · 126 L+0.8wins0.00per pick60cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c66…01d0backed LYON49c986.85$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.291030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-45.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf268…960fbacked Team Liquid10c972.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10047453.4%253 W · 221 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Team Liquid11c963.87$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.31,54354.8%845 W · 698 L+75.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6ab…b16ebacked LYON53c958.55$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.523040%12 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked LYON63c932.63$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.0783560.8%508 W · 327 L+45.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x100a…0919backed LYON53c921$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.871172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+36.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ed…1ea1backed LYON49c892.86$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.365639.3%22 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.