TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1926…83cc

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
116
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: UFC, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 54 out of 100; worst Valorant at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT4746.8%22 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 47 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$259.02
Will England win on 2026-07-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+103%+$185.48
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+81%+$145.79
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+37%+$66.58
Spain vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$333Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$390.91
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$666Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$272.03
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Netherlands · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$528Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$528
Germany leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$112
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$659Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+358.6%+$2,361.5
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$467Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$467
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$666Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$666
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$215.38
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$144.83
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)backed Qatar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$122.22
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$112.5
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$457Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$136.51
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$340Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$167.46
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,050Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$494.12
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$197.69
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Showing 25 of 47 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT3551.4%18 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 4 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$820Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$819.6
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winnerbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.24
Game 1: Odd/Even Total Kills?backed Odd · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$332Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+92.6%+$307.62
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON - Game 4 Winnerbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.66
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON - Game 3 Winnerbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON - Game 2 Winnerbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$77.14
LoL: G2 Esports vs LYON - Game 3 Winnerbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$141.43
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winnerbacked KT Rolster Challengers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$2,422Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,421.91
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winnerbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$3,283Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+91.9%+$3,018.19
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSIbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,984Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,983.6
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$380.47
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$581Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+152.7%+$887.3
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffsbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,084Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$486.99
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$742Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$741.99
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5)backed Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+108.4%+$390.33
Games Total: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+100%+$180
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSIbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$460Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+81.2%+$373.54
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$291.84
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winnerbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$166.15
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winnerbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$460Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$460
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffsbacked LOUD · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winnerbacked LOUD · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+55.9%+$201.1
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Cbacked Galions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$94.14
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 19, 2026, EDT2254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffsbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$289Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$289
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffsbacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.27
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffsbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$289Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$313.08
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winnerbacked 9z · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$289Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+67%+$193.66
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winnerbacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$172.94
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winnerbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$280
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winnerbacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$194.58
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winnerbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$460Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$460.47
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$20.42
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$144.24
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winnerbacked SPARTA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.78
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winnerbacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+109.4%+$19.96
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed 9z · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$269.02
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+100%+$280
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winnerbacked TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$280
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winnerbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$164.44
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winnerbacked B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winnerbacked Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$88.66
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winnerbacked Monte · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$130.34
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winnerbacked paiN · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
All 22 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-52.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick64cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Valorant — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+1,011.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajdabacked Zachary Svajda · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+1,011.1%+$1,011.11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+519.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+519.8%+$1,039.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Open Qualifier 1 Playoffsbacked Yellow Submarine · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+49.1%+$137.38
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.