TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FUT Esportsof MOUZ, FUT Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$560,430
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$664,772

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $560,430 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 416 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed MOUZ23c29,367$6,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,869.641,39638.9%543 W · 853 L-41.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed MOUZ49c25,000$12,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,249.9141649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fe1…4d7fbacked MOUZ40c17,192$6,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,960.735641.1%23 W · 33 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x96f7…d6aebacked MOUZ22c13,704$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,059.9622129.9%66 W · 155 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked FUT Esports49c13,449$6,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,858.9275758.3%441 W · 316 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed FUT Esports72c12,000$8,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,340.2350054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d21…07cfbacked MOUZ1c11,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick7cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55a1…db28backed FUT Esports51c10,000$5,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,902.011963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+31.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5faf…1183backed MOUZ33c9,000$2,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,97010935.8%39 W · 70 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ12c8,293$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.921,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec14…5a4ebacked MOUZ41c7,714$3,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,163.4933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked FUT Esports66c7,355$4,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,507.011,76859.2%1,047 W · 721 L+105.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked FUT Esports64c7,245$4,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,611.961,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed FUT Esports51c6,000$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,94017062.9%107 W · 63 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5201…d9d6backed MOUZ1c6,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick6cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed MOUZ51c5,690$2,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,901.917643.2%76 W · 100 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked FUT Esports50c5,495$2,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,747.5936453.8%196 W · 168 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked MOUZ15c5,418$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.181,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43f3…293cbacked MOUZ1c5,299$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.586136.1%22 W · 39 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-5.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8a1…2974backed MOUZ20c4,859$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.173122.6%7 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed MOUZ17c4,640$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.6888746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked FUT Esports58c4,434$2,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,848.6441040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…18a4backed FUT Esports51c3,922$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.5720448.5%99 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda6f…2874backed MOUZ51c3,865$1,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,958.374843.8%21 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x316f…795abacked MOUZ2c3,578$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.116634.8%23 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked FUT Esports50c3,489$1,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,744.51,00752.4%528 W · 479 L+27.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c05…9e9fbacked MOUZ15c3,302$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002920.7%6 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-48.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa927…8d9fbacked MOUZ55c3,213$1,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,778.6134559.1%204 W · 141 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ca2…088ebacked MOUZ2c3,107$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.189430.9%29 W · 65 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed FUT Esports50c3,026$1,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,513.0717249.4%85 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed MOUZ3c3,001$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3957935.1%203 W · 376 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked MOUZ50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50014934.9%52 W · 97 L-14.1wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaca0…9b86backed MOUZ34c2,941$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009834.7%34 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0db3…93d9backed MOUZ11c2,778$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked MOUZ33c2,576$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.432,59947.8%1,242 W · 1,357 L-30.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…6eacbacked MOUZ51c2,457$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25020358.1%118 W · 85 L+22.4wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+25%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x851a…de17backed MOUZ31c2,448$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.659826.5%26 W · 72 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-51.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked MOUZ1c2,357$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5710029%29 W · 71 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-31.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked FUT Esports72c2,315$1,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.662,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed FUT Esports65c2,286$1,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.059443.6%41 W · 53 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-23.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed MOUZ44c2,273$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008670.9%61 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x634a…6de3backed MOUZ50c2,168$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,084.2542651.6%220 W · 206 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe077…f5eebacked MOUZ42c2,130$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.5320041.5%83 W · 117 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b5a…1457backed FUT Esports73c2,034$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.5721143.1%91 W · 120 L-0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed FUT Esports56c2,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.9915251.3%78 W · 74 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65c4…3c1abacked MOUZ49c1,950$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.497424.3%18 W · 56 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed MOUZ50c1,844$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92260434.1%206 W · 398 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked MOUZ51c1,824$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93032542.2%137 W · 188 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1032…c372backed FUT Esports52c1,802$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872.817157.7%41 W · 30 L+8.6wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+27.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed MOUZ40c1,748$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.7454938.4%211 W · 338 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked FUT Esports51c1,728$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.351,47651.8%765 W · 711 L-4.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed MOUZ4c1,722$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.5245240.3%182 W · 270 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked MOUZ35c1,638$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.987,89250.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L+182.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked FUT Esports78c1,591$1,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.4525655.1%141 W · 115 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7126…bfcbbacked FUT Esports51c1,569$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.6319548.2%94 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed MOUZ32c1,556$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007546.7%35 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb084…be70backed MOUZ5c1,530$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.445824.1%14 W · 44 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed FUT Esports71c1,528$1,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.476,46642.9%2,777 W · 3,689 L-78.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked FUT Esports57c1,500$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64575145.4%341 W · 410 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf95e…53ffbacked MOUZ49c1,500$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74019849.5%98 W · 100 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed FUT Esports61c1,458$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.642,42944.6%1,083 W · 1,346 L-63.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed MOUZ1c1,457$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5741436.7%152 W · 262 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed FUT Esports63c1,432$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.8915155%83 W · 68 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed MOUZ4c1,400$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4737339.7%148 W · 225 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b14…039bbacked FUT Esports74c1,327$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.5911871.2%84 W · 34 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc50c…fe5dbacked FUT Esports61c1,313$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.624660.9%28 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c52…9eaebacked MOUZ2c1,300$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.648332.5%27 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed FUT Esports59c1,269$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.22,61051.7%1,349 W · 1,261 L+16.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed FUT Esports66c1,265$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.0287047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x609d…3fa9backed MOUZ39c1,251$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.219963.6%63 W · 36 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bf0…72cebacked MOUZ26c1,223$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.626647%31 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed FUT Esports51c1,216$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.6996545.7%441 W · 524 L+10.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad4b…e93dbacked MOUZ50c1,200$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6009050%45 W · 45 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cd0…08f6backed FUT Esports58c1,195$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.011283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.23per pick61cpaid+36.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe69d…dfa0backed FUT Esports51c1,176$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.472373.9%17 W · 6 L+5.3wins+0.23per pick51cpaid+53%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x04aa…2e69backed MOUZ34c1,164$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.884647.8%22 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1d1…6a15backed MOUZ46c1,141$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.053234.4%11 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa17e…cfcdbacked MOUZ18c1,111$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8a5…26a1backed FUT Esports60c1,108$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.1815749.7%78 W · 79 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7253…89edbacked FUT Esports50c1,105$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.515449.4%76 W · 78 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed MOUZ44c1,102$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48618837.2%70 W · 118 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb1f…6a93backed MOUZ50c1,100$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5504839.6%19 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed FUT Esports68c1,086$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.452,30945.1%1,041 W · 1,268 L-62.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb209…b744backed MOUZ44c1,075$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47329340.6%119 W · 174 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed FUT Esports59c1,038$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.2241850%209 W · 209 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed FUT Esports51c1,020$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.611,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed MOUZ50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50046340.8%189 W · 274 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49ac…2f1ebacked FUT Esports50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50027751.6%143 W · 134 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x180e…b3a6backed MOUZ50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50012535.2%44 W · 81 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2662…3f84backed FUT Esports50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50020958.9%123 W · 86 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe02…be9dbacked FUT Esports51c1,000$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.331253.5%167 W · 145 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x63ad…790cbacked MOUZ39c1,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3909352.7%49 W · 44 L+10.0wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x18e4…e2bbbacked FUT Esports50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5008562.4%53 W · 32 L+14.2wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+33.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed MOUZ1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105740%0 W · 574 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed FUT Esports68c999.99$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.7245058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1486…cef3backed MOUZ2c998.95$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.465949.2%29 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae9…5ff8backed MOUZ1c991.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.683644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f4adbacked FUT Esports51c980.39$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.3919047.9%91 W · 99 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa113…bb53backed MOUZ50c922$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4617353.4%39 W · 34 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+139.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x31cb…2442backed MOUZ42c900$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3789748.5%47 W · 50 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.