TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MOUZof MOUZ, FUT Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$465,119
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$536,078

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $465,119 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 356 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x880b…c98bbacked FUT Esports42c34,710$14,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,459.2341040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed FUT Esports21c26,708$5,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,589.741,39638.9%543 W · 853 L-41.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa69d…509bbacked MOUZ61c18,000$10,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,02019757.4%113 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89dd…f662backed FUT Esports39c13,181$5,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,131.356940.6%28 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed MOUZ74c10,000$7,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,597.6850054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed FUT Esports39c10,000$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,899.992227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed MOUZ61c8,100$4,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,158.9817737.3%66 W · 111 L-16.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xae5e…13bebacked FUT Esports40c6,384$2,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,553.4420248.5%98 W · 104 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked FUT Esports26c6,183$1,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,611.011,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked FUT Esports1c5,046$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8932832.3%106 W · 222 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd32f…1496backed FUT Esports30c4,241$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,268.6312759.1%75 W · 52 L+12.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed MOUZ60c4,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,60045058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed MOUZ60c3,800$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,52064552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67ed…085abacked MOUZ70c3,800$2,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1462147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed FUT Esports40c3,528$1,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,411.059443.6%41 W · 53 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-23.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6b3…9441backed MOUZ63c3,475$2,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,291.9511149.5%55 W · 56 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce80…08edbacked MOUZ60c3,292$1,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,316.6711947.1%56 W · 63 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed FUT Esports25c3,253$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.4587047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked MOUZ73c3,191$2,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.722,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked FUT Esports38c3,105$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,164.681,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked FUT Esports26c3,078$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.711,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed FUT Esports18c3,003$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.112,30945.1%1,041 W · 1,268 L-62.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31cb…2442backed MOUZ61c2,988$1,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,164.089748.5%47 W · 50 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed MOUZ72c2,749$1,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.736,46642.9%2,777 W · 3,689 L-78.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d2b…afc5backed FUT Esports26c2,748$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.9119659.2%116 W · 80 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed MOUZ62c2,692$1,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,023.1118837.2%70 W · 118 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa927…8d9fbacked MOUZ58c2,603$1,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,088.1634559.1%204 W · 141 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed FUT Esports25c2,500$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.782,42944.6%1,083 W · 1,346 L-63.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked FUT Esports39c2,359$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92025655.1%141 W · 115 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked FUT Esports12c2,347$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.91,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed MOUZ69c2,222$1,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.8213357.1%76 W · 57 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed FUT Esports10c2,124$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.0548437.6%182 W · 302 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked FUT Esports30c2,047$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.012,59947.8%1,242 W · 1,357 L-30.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed FUT Esports39c2,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78037157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked MOUZ60c1,922$1,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.9148548.7%236 W · 249 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked MOUZ60c1,869$1,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.0838054.5%207 W · 173 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c73…6dafbacked FUT Esports55c1,818$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002864.3%18 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed MOUZ60c1,800$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72015251.3%78 W · 74 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f9…d198backed FUT Esports23c1,682$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.353234.4%11 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-16.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef07…bb26backed MOUZ61c1,650$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.51353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed MOUZ61c1,639$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.341,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed FUT Esports18c1,629$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.2388746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8a5…26a1backed FUT Esports54c1,617$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.2415749.7%78 W · 79 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed FUT Esports40c1,517$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.7960434.1%206 W · 398 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65c4…3c1abacked FUT Esports40c1,500$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.997424.3%18 W · 56 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed FUT Esports40c1,500$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.976041.7%25 W · 35 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e43…6583backed MOUZ59c1,462$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.4113360.2%80 W · 53 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7126…bfcbbacked FUT Esports31c1,406$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.6819548.2%94 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8e19…d2b0backed MOUZ74c1,388$1,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.8552750.7%267 W · 260 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FUT Esports27c1,386$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.925,47446.9%2,565 W · 2,909 L+38.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b5a…a421backed MOUZ69c1,380$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.711080%8 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+49.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5903…d02bbacked FUT Esports8c1,307$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.65230.8%16 W · 36 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick37cpaid+18.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked FUT Esports24c1,292$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.161,64332.8%539 W · 1,104 L-48.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f4adbacked FUT Esports31c1,282$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40019047.9%91 W · 99 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8a1…2974backed FUT Esports9c1,268$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.753122.6%7 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x18f3…0c20backed MOUZ60c1,250$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50026155.2%144 W · 117 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2fd…5dabbacked FUT Esports23c1,210$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.69746.4%45 W · 52 L+7.6wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed MOUZ61c1,200$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.9932346.1%149 W · 174 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked FUT Esports34c1,111$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.943,16545.7%1,446 W · 1,719 L-74.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5dd…642abacked MOUZ46c1,085$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.873243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked FUT Esports37c1,059$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.840253.7%216 W · 186 L+25.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x611a…e171backed MOUZ48c1,039$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.0617460.3%105 W · 69 L+0.7wins0.00per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee80…f34ebacked FUT Esports41c1,020$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.235460.7%215 W · 139 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7253…89edbacked FUT Esports42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42015449.4%76 W · 78 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed FUT Esports1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105740%0 W · 574 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed FUT Esports40c999.99$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.991,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed FUT Esports52c997.01$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.4581843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cc7…43e5backed FUT Esports22c959.5$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.57716.9%13 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-48%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd22a…2a00backed MOUZ73c919.42$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.245149%25 W · 26 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed FUT Esports55c886.69$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.6841850%209 W · 209 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked MOUZ60c850$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34022266.7%148 W · 74 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked FUT Esports27c829.17$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.544,66143.5%2,027 W · 2,634 L-85.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked FUT Esports39c807.69$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3151,62144.8%726 W · 895 L+3.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked MOUZ62c806.45$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.456854.4%37 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed FUT Esports29c806.04$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.664,04050.9%2,057 W · 1,983 L+71.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x851a…de17backed FUT Esports41c801.87$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.969826.5%26 W · 72 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-51.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x04db…7703backed FUT Esports6c799.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4841645.9%191 W · 225 L+22.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed MOUZ60c750$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30037057.3%212 W · 158 L-16.4wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked FUT Esports30c749.11$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.434,89737.4%1,832 W · 3,065 L-245.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa17e…cfcdbacked FUT Esports28c714.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca4…f852backed FUT Esports22c708.89$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.393732.4%12 W · 25 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2662…3f84backed MOUZ71c704.61$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.6120958.9%123 W · 86 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcba5…cd88backed MOUZ62c700$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2663250%16 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed FUT Esports39c700$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27346749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked FUT Esports26c682.1$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.4162738.8%243 W · 384 L-31.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed FUT Esports26c650.43$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.3414042.1%59 W · 81 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked MOUZ44c646.94$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.7940950.6%207 W · 202 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae94…6b17backed MOUZ78c626.09$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.8710551.4%54 W · 51 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked FUT Esports29c608.39$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.641,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3351…4e2dbacked MOUZ73c608.22$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.224158.5%24 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8261…a3f1backed MOUZ48c600$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3122441.7%10 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.17per pick59cpaid-33.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb378…e4c0backed FUT Esports3c600$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2038312.8%49 W · 334 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfc9…7552backed FUT Esports35c599.99$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21016749.1%82 W · 85 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed MOUZ60c589.68$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.8721048.1%101 W · 109 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed FUT Esports63c588.82$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37022843.9%100 W · 128 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x989e…6529backed FUT Esports18c550$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2713040%52 W · 78 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed MOUZ60c545.61$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.2449841.8%208 W · 290 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54f5…47e2backed MOUZ67c514.71$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.52254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf424…9723backed MOUZ70c512.22$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.2221135.5%75 W · 136 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed MOUZ75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1259158.2%53 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.