TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Monteof PARIVISION, Monte
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$613,656
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$682,250

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $613,656 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 505 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd3b0…329ebacked PARIVISION63c53,000$33,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,569.3725655.5%142 W · 114 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed PARIVISION51c50,000$25,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,676.8650254.2%272 W · 230 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33d3…bf38backed PARIVISION52c35,508$18,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,486.0310560%63 W · 42 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Monte51c20,003$10,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,790.971,43139%558 W · 873 L-41.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Monte50c18,847$9,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,350.3282143%353 W · 468 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Monte55c18,296$10,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,214.376744.8%30 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Monte53c14,001$7,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,579.261,79059.2%1,060 W · 730 L+106.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Monte39c13,008$5,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,997.1546349.9%231 W · 232 L-1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Monte37c12,750$4,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,037.4723343.8%102 W · 131 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6373…a0b7backed Monte44c11,203$4,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,273.834526.7%12 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x96f7…d6aebacked Monte35c10,866$3,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,062.6222230.2%67 W · 155 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked PARIVISION66c10,847$7,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,213.1915153.6%81 W · 70 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0111…1071backed PARIVISION42c10,391$4,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,359.982564%16 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+31.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ee6…fe26backed PARIVISION1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cd1…285dbacked PARIVISION50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.999248.9%45 W · 47 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Monte42c9,969$4,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,769.61,61945.5%737 W · 882 L+31.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Monte66c9,772$6,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,281.1614947.7%71 W · 78 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Monte39c8,688$3,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,273.189546.8%419 W · 476 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Monte39c8,560$3,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,192.631,06049%519 W · 541 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed Monte62c8,399$5,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,184.6337157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa927…8d9fbacked PARIVISION45c8,350$3,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,776.2234559.1%204 W · 141 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd487…053ebacked Monte80c8,043$6,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,626.694557.8%26 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked PARIVISION41c7,969$3,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,266.212,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ff8…5e5dbacked PARIVISION67c7,263$4,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,840.639549.5%47 W · 48 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed Monte38c7,179$2,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,451.039443.6%41 W · 53 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-23.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Monte48c6,841$3,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,569.987847.9%421 W · 457 L+16.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked PARIVISION60c6,640$3,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,983.9341340.2%166 W · 247 L-2.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked PARIVISION34c6,501$2,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,241.757,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf048…3f29backed Monte38c6,438$2,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,008.46862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed PARIVISION62c6,170$3,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,825.0136054.4%196 W · 164 L+16.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed PARIVISION65c5,991$3,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,893.9620%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x31b0…8bf3backed Monte35c5,850$2,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,802.54136.6%15 W · 26 L-5.5wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-30.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9f63…9551backed PARIVISION64c5,300$3,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,392.984252.4%22 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed Monte37c5,000$1,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,149.9636845.1%166 W · 202 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d2b…afc5backed Monte47c4,980$2,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,642.1619659.2%116 W · 80 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb57d…07bfbacked PARIVISION42c4,819$2,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,003.2814037.9%53 W · 87 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Monte52c4,748$2,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,279.2221251.4%109 W · 103 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c05…9e9fbacked PARIVISION43c4,671$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002920.7%6 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-48.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Monte41c4,570$1,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,701.171,26346.9%592 W · 671 L+18.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Monte43c4,540$1,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,599.0837845.5%172 W · 206 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Monte39c4,484$1,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,736.012,09241.6%871 W · 1,221 L-50.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed PARIVISION51c4,000$2,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,039.37965.8%52 W · 27 L+0.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd66…f510backed Monte39c4,000$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,419.992642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Monte57c3,750$2,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,62539468%268 W · 126 L+26.1wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+3.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Monte44c3,223$1,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,819.4432348.9%158 W · 165 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd65…5726backed PARIVISION64c3,174$2,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,031.362751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed PARIVISION62c3,054$1,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,892.692,64551.9%1,372 W · 1,273 L+21.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Monte35c3,000$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,95078939.5%312 W · 477 L-3.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked PARIVISION53c3,000$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,589.9912956.6%73 W · 56 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed Monte58c2,638$1,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,095.2515155%83 W · 68 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd528…a2d2backed PARIVISION33c2,520$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.818056.7%102 W · 78 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed PARIVISION65c2,472$1,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,606.6113754%74 W · 63 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed PARIVISION61c2,433$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,479.6522253.2%118 W · 104 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed Monte35c2,429$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,578.8422554.2%122 W · 103 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Monte36c2,416$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,558.3511249.1%55 W · 57 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+20.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xafc5…2b1dbacked Monte35c2,350$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,527.58333.7%28 W · 55 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed PARIVISION56c2,348$1,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,314.8859841.3%247 W · 351 L-20.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked PARIVISION44c2,264$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.611323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-67.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed PARIVISION56c2,058$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.6744848.4%217 W · 231 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked PARIVISION2c2,031$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405846.6%27 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Monte54c2,008$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.7646749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92ad…9706backed Monte60c2,008$1,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.25683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick62cpaid+30.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Monte37c2,000$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,260.5518442.9%79 W · 105 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked Monte35c2,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,30025855%142 W · 116 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2ff…906cbacked PARIVISION64c2,000$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.993351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd32f…1496backed Monte43c1,881$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.3612759.1%75 W · 52 L+12.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd8a5…26a1backed Monte60c1,880$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.6415749.7%78 W · 79 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56ae…9badbacked PARIVISION37c1,850$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.992646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb2…bd2dbacked PARIVISION57c1,834$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,038.7613850%69 W · 69 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf56d…9eeabacked Monte39c1,790$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.914853.4%79 W · 69 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Monte28c1,785$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285.1860248.7%293 W · 309 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Monte36c1,770$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.1760848%292 W · 316 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc568…1a8cbacked Monte49c1,739$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891.184843.8%21 W · 27 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a86…cc01backed PARIVISION54c1,672$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.876136.1%22 W · 39 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Monte60c1,667$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.678361.4%51 W · 32 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed Monte36c1,623$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.5224233.9%82 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2756…e8c7backed PARIVISION65c1,552$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.25552.7%29 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Monte36c1,529$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.7928549.5%141 W · 144 L+1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x968a…3841backed Monte58c1,510$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.838324.1%20 W · 63 L-7.8wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-43.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Monte39c1,500$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9101,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58d6…e718backed Monte54c1,492$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6875253.8%28 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91e5…0947backed Monte66c1,487$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.478758.6%51 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Monte49c1,481$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.71,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Monte59c1,475$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.515,34131.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L-390.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0e43…6583backed PARIVISION60c1,408$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.713360.2%80 W · 53 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf7c…4c16backed Monte50c1,363$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.713655.9%76 W · 60 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf2a…5ae1backed PARIVISION53c1,321$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70012955%71 W · 58 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked PARIVISION55c1,208$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.476854.4%37 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Monte35c1,184$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.661834.6%214 W · 404 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0758…9532backed PARIVISION57c1,142$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65019336.3%70 W · 123 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Monte34c1,124$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.8232542.2%137 W · 188 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71f5…1aecbacked PARIVISION51c1,110$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.17332.9%24 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb875…ac87backed PARIVISION38c1,107$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42017149.1%84 W · 87 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x65c4…3c1abacked Monte29c1,102$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.227424.3%18 W · 56 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Monte57c1,064$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.6956938.1%217 W · 352 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Monte50c1,046$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.22,52743.1%1,088 W · 1,439 L+42.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe6…7027backed Monte61c1,030$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4022152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Monte50c1,022$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.92,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf529…755fbacked Monte55c1,009$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.487044.3%31 W · 39 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb71…4371backed PARIVISION61c1,000$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61087351.2%447 W · 426 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.