TailMyPicks
Market

Lol · resolved market

LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
T1of T1, Gen.G
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,924,475
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,272,742

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,924,475 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4be1…aa70backed T139c194,093$75,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118,296.953754.1%20 W · 17 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+45.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7671…7244backed Gen.G72c137,283$99,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99,247.894676.1%35 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked T129c101,604$28,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72,645.671,09752.3%574 W · 523 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Gen.G46c99,310$45,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,547.411,30045.2%587 W · 713 L+50.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae5e…13bebacked T128c93,367$26,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67,091.549541.6%206 W · 289 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked T147c91,327$43,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,253.671,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5a5…c668backed T125c83,101$20,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,158.091546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Gen.G57c80,000$45,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,799.9457546.3%266 W · 309 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Gen.G55c42,427$23,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,529.7751146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed Gen.G72c42,391$30,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,400.1755056.7%312 W · 238 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Gen.G58c38,589$22,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,396.931,20354%650 W · 553 L+28.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e71…e570backed T128c37,336$10,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,881.924560%27 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked Gen.G58c36,712$21,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,293.0612036.7%44 W · 76 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Gen.G58c34,583$20,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,024.8990348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1610…ae49backed T145c34,313$15,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,035.886046.7%28 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed T131c33,510$10,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,122.0817133.9%58 W · 113 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked Gen.G62c32,258$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,00032955.6%183 W · 146 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b49…04a8backed Gen.G63c31,784$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,00039964.4%257 W · 142 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ea8…9469backed T131c30,711$9,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,142.66450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+64.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked Gen.G68c30,470$20,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,754.3796948.6%471 W · 498 L+12.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb15…8393backed T131c30,000$9,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,699.9815933.3%53 W · 106 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+32.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Gen.G58c28,614$16,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,637.6712642.9%54 W · 72 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84da…b692backed Gen.G64c28,161$18,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,028.74540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Gen.G57c27,726$15,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,800.481,59653.7%857 W · 739 L+56.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed T141c27,256$11,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,210.71,63540.2%657 W · 978 L+48.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Gen.G50c27,091$13,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,466.671,50250.3%756 W · 746 L+71.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Gen.G54c26,564$14,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,314.0167760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x18f0…3d5ebacked T143c26,310$11,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,952.4311138.7%43 W · 68 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6100…ed95backed T142c25,696$10,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,891.238259.8%49 W · 33 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+9.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Gen.G65c24,092$15,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,742.741,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed T138c23,333$8,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,355.2923447.9%112 W · 122 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed T140c23,015$9,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,904.0739851.8%206 W · 192 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked Gen.G68c21,777$14,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,808.351,52254.7%832 W · 690 L+37.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed T142c21,734$9,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,530.062,23733.3%745 W · 1,492 L-71.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8627…5382backed T132c20,578$6,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,992.9222355.2%123 W · 100 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed T141c20,000$8,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,899.981540%6 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+699.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe548…a9febacked T163c20,000$12,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,399.9917954.7%98 W · 81 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb12b…5a89backed Gen.G66c20,000$13,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,238.064261.9%26 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed Gen.G68c20,000$13,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,599.9316258%94 W · 68 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc0c…cfc9backed T144c19,821$8,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,025.153650%18 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Gen.G56c19,500$10,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,893.782,01258.1%1,168 W · 844 L+84.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed T144c18,488$8,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,419.1148449.8%241 W · 243 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Gen.G54c18,123$9,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,736.690937.3%339 W · 570 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b42…62afbacked Gen.G51c18,044$9,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,193.5834536.5%126 W · 219 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe4eb…1a6ebacked T146c17,672$8,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,542.628933.7%30 W · 59 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed Gen.G71c17,346$12,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,269.691,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70dc…1dfdbacked T142c16,916$7,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,745.4910547.6%50 W · 55 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Gen.G60c16,738$9,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,961.3859854.2%324 W · 274 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Gen.G57c16,500$9,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,404.981,15849.2%570 W · 588 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked T144c16,454$7,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,199.0959658.2%347 W · 249 L-29.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x14cd…cec1backed Gen.G47c16,316$7,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,641.216235.5%22 W · 40 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-23.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked T145c15,757$7,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,588.0550041.6%208 W · 292 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf751…fec8backed T132c15,661$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,660.631741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked Gen.G79c15,620$12,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,284.7167853.4%362 W · 316 L+25.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Gen.G61c15,489$9,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,469.1586136.2%312 W · 549 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Gen.G58c15,438$8,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,929.3218953.4%101 W · 88 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x31b0…8bf3backed Gen.G57c15,000$8,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,55015153.6%81 W · 70 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-2.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x55a1…db28backed T152c14,969$7,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,182.552250%11 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked T143c14,850$6,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,477.3220847.6%99 W · 109 L+17.6wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+37.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Gen.G62c14,676$9,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,062.22334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20f4…15e1backed Gen.G80c14,101$11,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,254.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed T132c14,092$4,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,582.261533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe59c…4da7backed Gen.G72c13,651$9,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,828.7110051%51 W · 49 L-8.8wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-16.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed T138c13,452$5,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,326.423,15933.8%1,068 W · 2,091 L-152.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d66…7799backed T143c13,432$5,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,710.574240.5%17 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd58…18f9backed T150c13,000$6,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,459.9921144.5%94 W · 117 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Gen.G36c12,958$4,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,613.3143542.5%185 W · 250 L+19.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Gen.G60c12,273$7,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,356.661,06154.7%580 W · 481 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Gen.G61c12,250$7,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,472.441931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.19per pick51cpaid-43.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa8e6…d471backed Gen.G59c12,164$7,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,233.183342.4%14 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-28.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed T130c11,854$3,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,266.2147933.2%159 W · 320 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ec8…3a77backed Gen.G53c11,710$6,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,154.749542.1%40 W · 55 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a4c…1f30backed Gen.G69c11,600$8,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,00416356.4%92 W · 71 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed T146c11,584$5,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,222.5546436.4%169 W · 295 L-24.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Gen.G61c11,500$7,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0301,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc04e…75d9backed T134c11,351$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,451.357147.9%34 W · 37 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed T152c11,314$5,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,402.0389746.9%421 W · 476 L+43.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Gen.G65c11,285$7,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,376.741,46961.4%902 W · 567 L-20.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Gen.G50c10,520$5,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,245.9176639.6%303 W · 463 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked Gen.G51c10,466$5,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,330.476347.1%45 W · 589 L-1.9wins0.00per pick7cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Gen.G37c10,157$3,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,758.1119239.1%75 W · 117 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb143…f649backed T175c10,000$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5007848.7%38 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe02…be9dbacked Gen.G57c10,000$5,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,70026856%150 W · 118 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50b1…861bbacked Gen.G62c10,000$6,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,168.7434448.8%168 W · 176 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Gen.G47c10,000$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,699.9767552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b36…b103backed T141c9,928$4,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,851.6313360.2%80 W · 53 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09c6…291ebacked Gen.G72c9,663$6,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,957.5518560%111 W · 74 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked Gen.G57c9,519$5,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,386.767250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd331…733cbacked Gen.G54c9,397$5,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,062.4235848.9%175 W · 183 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed T148c9,256$4,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,769.2256144.6%250 W · 311 L-27.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04b1…d224backed Gen.G50c9,123$4,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,556.1640851.7%211 W · 197 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked T170c8,901$6,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,668.4812557.6%72 W · 53 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb13…37cdbacked T124c8,838$2,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,688.122842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0df…5974backed T129c8,621$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,120.692100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+228.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb589…91e3backed Gen.G60c8,333$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00051748.2%249 W · 268 L+26.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9867…ea53backed Gen.G59c8,135$4,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,803.1613752.6%72 W · 65 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+17.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed T143c8,000$3,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,56090443.6%394 W · 510 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6768…4ef1backed Gen.G59c8,000$4,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,741.9910449%51 W · 53 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed T141c7,898$3,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,650.551,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf393…9b65backed T131c7,883$2,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,444.8128836.8%106 W · 182 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.