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Lol · resolved market

LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
T1of T1, Gen.G
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,574,903
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,873,793

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,574,903 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,000 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x04b1…d224backed Gen.G60c65,157$39,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,181.540851.7%211 W · 197 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f63…e539backed T138c44,793$16,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,943.761560%9 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdf6…00a1backed T150c44,299$22,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,077.465050%25 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked T140c41,713$16,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,076.061,30045.2%587 W · 713 L+50.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6100…ed95backed T143c32,746$14,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,601.418259.8%49 W · 33 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+9.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked T146c31,006$14,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,639.4890348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed T148c30,322$14,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,869.461,20354%650 W · 553 L+28.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5a5…c668backed T153c29,899$15,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,143.721546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Gen.G56c29,269$16,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,267.451,42838.4%548 W · 880 L-42.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Gen.G50c28,237$14,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,177.271,63540.2%657 W · 978 L+48.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked T147c27,910$13,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,907.752,01258.1%1,168 W · 844 L+84.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed Gen.G57c27,558$15,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,70023141.1%95 W · 136 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Gen.G52c25,266$13,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,112.0451146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa57d…701fbacked Gen.G51c24,437$12,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,452.7612446%57 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Gen.G54c22,394$12,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,164.4367760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed T146c22,012$10,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,878.531,59653.7%857 W · 739 L+56.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Gen.G54c20,000$10,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,799.9992254%498 W · 424 L-1.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Gen.G53c18,000$9,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,54064455.6%358 W · 286 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed Gen.G54c16,755$9,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,036.581,01647%478 W · 538 L+21.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55a1…db28backed Gen.G53c16,361$8,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,600.912250%11 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d78…29a5backed Gen.G50c15,796$7,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,897.868651.2%44 W · 42 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked T139c15,385$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,384.6232955.6%183 W · 146 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3b…6598backed Gen.G1c15,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150336.1%2 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-81.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e6…d471backed T148c15,000$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,799.993342.4%14 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-28.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7ec8…3a77backed Gen.G46c14,880$6,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,894.339542.1%40 W · 55 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xae5e…13bebacked T140c13,574$5,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,201.3949541.6%206 W · 289 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Gen.G50c12,919$6,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,430.9989746.9%421 W · 476 L+43.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Gen.G57c12,841$7,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,305.1476639.6%303 W · 463 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed T135c12,031$4,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,815.5732650.3%164 W · 162 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Gen.G58c11,879$6,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,898.441,06154.7%580 W · 481 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc23e…98a4backed Gen.G51c11,531$5,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,918.527951.9%41 W · 38 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Gen.G62c10,912$6,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,738.031,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe6…7027backed Gen.G51c10,410$5,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,286.491546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+23.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4eb…1a6ebacked T147c10,014$4,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,324.388933.7%30 W · 59 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe02…be9dbacked Gen.G62c10,000$6,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,20026856%150 W · 118 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb143…f649backed T147c10,000$4,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,3007848.7%38 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed T147c9,785$4,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,148.1755056.7%312 W · 238 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed Gen.G53c9,430$4,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,998.0816258%94 W · 68 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked T153c9,218$4,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,348.811,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb589…91e3backed Gen.G67c9,087$6,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,084.2851748.2%249 W · 268 L+26.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Gen.G59c9,066$5,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,340.023,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b49…04a8backed Gen.G59c8,500$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00039964.4%257 W · 142 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ac7…8a43backed T128c8,475$2,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,105.5118132.6%59 W · 122 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+50.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked T163c8,462$5,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,119.247754.5%42 W · 35 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed T148c8,333$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,333.3358457.7%337 W · 247 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd58…18f9backed Gen.G53c8,000$4,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,240.2121144.5%94 W · 117 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Gen.G52c7,777$4,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,044.031,46961.4%902 W · 567 L-20.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd92c…dd9abacked T152c7,500$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,599.982737%10 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed Gen.G56c7,416$4,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,140.151,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a4c…1f30backed Gen.G62c7,400$4,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,574.5116356.4%92 W · 71 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdee3…6fe5backed T139c7,087$2,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,323.0728341%116 W · 167 L-15.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed T152c6,930$3,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,345.2248449.8%241 W · 243 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70dc…1dfdbacked Gen.G47c6,859$3,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,205.3810547.6%50 W · 55 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed T144c6,835$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,835.1519053.2%101 W · 89 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac6…122fbacked T139c6,667$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,066.671729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed Gen.G64c6,565$4,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,214.7839140.4%158 W · 233 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc890…c2ffbacked Gen.G53c6,550$3,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,449.95911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.33per pick44cpaid-69.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc04e…75d9backed T139c6,200$2,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,7827147.9%34 W · 37 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed T138c6,140$2,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,806.8517133.9%58 W · 113 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed T144c5,710$2,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,182.861,15849.2%570 W · 588 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked Gen.G53c5,662$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00026849.3%132 W · 136 L+22.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+21.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed T138c5,557$2,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,452.571,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Gen.G53c5,475$2,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,914.526942.4%114 W · 155 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f0…d756backed Gen.G58c5,273$3,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,059.231811.1%2 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.18per pick29cpaid-76%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8fd1…bfe8backed Gen.G48c5,190$2,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,513.8255639.6%220 W · 336 L+32.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed T147c5,137$2,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,722.611,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd6a…4119backed Gen.G53c5,080$2,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,680.381030%3 W · 7 L-3.5wins-0.35per pick65cpaid-54.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Gen.G50c5,000$2,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,481.582,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84da…b692backed T139c4,900$1,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,989540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b42…62afbacked T158c4,452$2,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,882.7534536.5%126 W · 219 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked T147c4,403$2,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,316.2899756.6%564 W · 433 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed Gen.G55c4,367$2,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,401.955959.3%35 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Gen.G58c4,239$2,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,462.7786943.2%375 W · 494 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32c3…5b4ebacked Gen.G61c4,206$2,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,567.384344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa113…bb53backed Gen.G48c4,184$2,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,020.48538.8%33 W · 52 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x939f…6d5ebacked T162c4,046$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,546.028728.7%25 W · 62 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee7c…70f2backed Gen.G41c4,046$1,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,664.5648834%166 W · 322 L+25.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed T145c4,000$1,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,190.1790443.6%394 W · 510 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Gen.G59c3,923$2,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,302.21,80251.2%923 W · 879 L+53.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed T148c3,541$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,841.321,31055.8%731 W · 579 L+43.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0a7…9631backed T140c3,500$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,099.992231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-8.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6be4…1f20backed T144c3,500$1,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,954.9752947.6%252 W · 277 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed T147c3,390$1,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,796.81,00554%543 W · 462 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked Gen.G57c3,268$1,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,855.1967853.4%362 W · 316 L+25.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Gen.G44c3,221$1,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,424.232534.8%113 W · 212 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd995…2b51backed T139c3,205$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,955.1319122.5%43 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ed…085abacked Gen.G67c3,200$2,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,143.2310541.9%44 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…cc01backed Gen.G59c3,156$1,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,861.3517439.7%69 W · 105 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed Gen.G57c3,137$1,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,792.1948157.6%277 W · 204 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedf9…5c67backed Gen.G58c3,080$1,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,795.49933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-39.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b36…b103backed T148c3,065$1,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,604.7613360.2%80 W · 53 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e62…f6ffbacked Gen.G50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5009248.9%45 W · 47 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74fc…a0bdbacked Gen.G54c3,000$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,62015457.8%89 W · 65 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9a9…3ba9backed T140c3,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,80033945.4%154 W · 185 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked T146c3,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,619.981,60342.4%679 W · 924 L-18.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked T144c3,000$1,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,689.5984360.7%512 W · 331 L+44.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b4d…5f4abacked Gen.G57c2,949$1,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,666.592751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+44.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf490…63afbacked Gen.G63c2,926$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,849.517738.4%68 W · 109 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a8…6427backed Gen.G66c2,908$1,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,918.529265.2%60 W · 32 L+9.8wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+13.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x50b1…861bbacked T131c2,900$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,009.4134448.8%168 W · 176 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.