TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gen.Gof T1, Gen.G
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,185,195
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,357,633

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,185,195 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 857 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Gen.G65c41,012$26,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,239.0490348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed T134c34,540$11,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,743.6451146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Gen.G63c31,927$20,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,656.7767760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ac7…8a43backed T125c29,919$7,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,389.5318132.6%59 W · 122 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+50.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Gen.G53c29,851$15,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,121.291,30045.2%587 W · 713 L+50.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6100…ed95backed T140c25,106$9,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,973.398259.8%49 W · 33 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+9.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked T155c23,698$13,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,111.5957546.3%266 W · 309 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Gen.G62c21,910$13,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,345.2189746.9%421 W · 476 L+43.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5a5…c668backed T133c21,124$7,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,068.531546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Gen.G63c20,066$12,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,427.351,20354%650 W · 553 L+28.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed T136c19,792$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,199.7348449.8%241 W · 243 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Gen.G66c19,750$13,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,618.822,01258.1%1,168 W · 844 L+84.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Gen.G64c17,733$11,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,342.951,59653.7%857 W · 739 L+56.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x32c3…5b4ebacked T132c16,200$5,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,155.84344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked T136c15,411$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,50026849.3%132 W · 136 L+22.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+21.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x70dc…1dfdbacked T134c15,000$5,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,066.6710547.6%50 W · 55 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed T155c14,812$8,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,184.3392254%498 W · 424 L-1.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f0…d756backed T133c14,782$4,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,812.481811.1%2 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.18per pick29cpaid-76%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9e3b…6598backed T12c14,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300336.1%2 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-81.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Gen.G65c13,643$8,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,775.0518953.4%101 W · 88 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Gen.G61c13,516$8,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,307.871,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd995…2b51backed T130c13,294$3,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,968.7419122.5%43 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Gen.G66c12,486$8,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,248.61,15849.2%570 W · 588 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e6…d471backed Gen.G70c12,000$8,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,599.993342.4%14 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-28.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ac6…122fbacked T143c11,667$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa57d…701fbacked Gen.G63c11,489$7,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,213.6412446%57 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc23e…98a4backed T143c11,214$4,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,797.647951.9%41 W · 38 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Gen.G66c11,110$7,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,744.071,46961.4%902 W · 567 L-20.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xae5e…13bebacked T136c10,906$3,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,880.6549541.6%206 W · 289 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4eb…1a6ebacked T146c10,118$4,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,704.388933.7%30 W · 59 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x939f…6d5ebacked T123c10,000$2,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,260.828728.7%25 W · 62 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x55a1…db28backed T160c9,566$5,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,734.412250%11 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd58…18f9backed Gen.G40c9,550$3,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,730.0621144.5%94 W · 117 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ec8…3a77backed Gen.G44c9,411$4,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,270.459542.1%40 W · 55 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed T136c8,888$3,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,155.2421049.5%104 W · 106 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed Gen.G58c8,621$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,620.6916258%94 W · 68 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b42…62afbacked Gen.G71c8,473$6,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,447.7934536.5%126 W · 219 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x46a8…cde8backed T142c8,380$3,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,524.646755.2%37 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed T142c8,090$3,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3981,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked T136c7,645$2,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,728.1437640.2%151 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b49…04a8backed Gen.G69c7,294$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,294.3839964.4%257 W · 142 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50b1…861bbacked Gen.G64c7,188$4,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,554.334448.8%168 W · 176 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a4c…1f30backed T138c6,897$2,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,591.5216356.4%92 W · 71 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x32eb…ded0backed Gen.G63c6,355$3,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,379.0431644.3%140 W · 176 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31b0…8bf3backed Gen.G61c6,243$3,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,434.6215153.6%81 W · 70 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-2.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Gen.G68c5,921$3,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,922.9258457.7%337 W · 247 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed T136c5,796$2,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,068.3756144.6%250 W · 311 L-27.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc04e…75d9backed T135c5,719$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0007147.9%34 W · 37 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked Gen.G65c5,703$3,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,996.0567250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18f3…0c20backed Gen.G61c5,634$3,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,170.7316155.3%89 W · 72 L-0.6wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed Gen.G72c5,555$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,55523141.1%95 W · 136 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed T134c5,500$1,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,874.9932534.8%113 W · 212 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked T136c5,113$1,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,815.8488544.3%392 W · 493 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Gen.G65c5,090$3,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,769.3859854.2%324 W · 274 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked Gen.G80c5,028$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.767853.4%362 W · 316 L+25.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Gen.G55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,25067552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed T13c5,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507889.8%77 W · 711 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6768…4ef1backed Gen.G66c5,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,699.9910449%51 W · 53 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed T154c5,000$2,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,705.1990443.6%394 W · 510 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed T125c4,987$1,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,271.6132650.3%164 W · 162 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked Gen.G68c4,977$3,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,598.4912557.6%72 W · 53 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed Gen.G66c4,943$3,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,680.6255056.7%312 W · 238 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked T167c4,504$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00059658.2%347 W · 249 L-29.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fe6…7027backed T136c4,331$1,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,562.151546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+23.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Gen.G64c4,253$2,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,522.723,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked Gen.G70c4,231$2,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,289.4426844%118 W · 150 L-37.1wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-26.2%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xe0a7…9631backed T134c4,200$1,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4282231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-8.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2b36…b103backed Gen.G64c4,200$2,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50213360.2%80 W · 53 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc0c…cfc9backed T132c4,167$1,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,350.873650%18 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4068…aeb1backed T133c4,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32015431.8%49 W · 105 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-33.5%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Gen.G57c4,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,719.991,32038.6%510 W · 810 L-66.0wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xedf9…5c67backed Gen.G63c3,969$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,468.79933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-39.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a86…cc01backed T135c3,939$1,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,378.6517439.7%69 W · 105 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc790…85b1backed Gen.G57c3,663$2,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,575.34100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+87.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa113…bb53backed T136c3,640$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,310.48538.8%33 W · 52 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked T134c3,600$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.991,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed Gen.G65c3,558$2,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,233.8758850.5%297 W · 291 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed T135c3,552$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25056432.1%181 W · 383 L-2.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked T134c3,550$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,206.251,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb97b…87dcbacked Gen.G61c3,500$2,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,365.9214654.8%80 W · 66 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7097…e1debacked Gen.G65c3,436$2,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,202.689450%47 W · 47 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed T159c3,431$2,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,024.031,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3bc…5bd2backed Gen.G59c3,358$1,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,376.6329748.1%143 W · 154 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed T146c3,343$1,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,533.181,63540.2%657 W · 978 L+48.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda6e…feb5backed Gen.G62c3,304$2,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,255.511566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+28.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Gen.G50c3,205$1,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,596.221,18244.8%530 W · 652 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68c9…aec3backed Gen.G59c3,040$1,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,246.415031.3%47 W · 103 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-26.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked T142c3,038$1,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,286.161,60342.4%679 W · 924 L-18.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Gen.G59c3,007$1,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,244.141,42838.4%548 W · 880 L-42.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5257…f324backed Gen.G66c3,000$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0202254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10bd…270bbacked T145c3,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.993839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74fc…a0bdbacked Gen.G65c2,995$1,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.5615457.8%89 W · 65 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked Gen.G69c2,936$2,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910.187754.5%42 W · 35 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed T138c2,898$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,112.8286136.2%312 W · 549 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed T135c2,767$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97728835.4%102 W · 186 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed T139c2,750$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06033736.5%123 W · 214 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb62d…c8ccbacked T154c2,749$1,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,48736954.2%200 W · 169 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9a9…3ba9backed Gen.G63c2,654$1,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.4733945.4%154 W · 185 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed T135c2,500$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.071,26542.8%541 W · 724 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cd4…0c98backed Gen.G67c2,468$1,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.651050%5 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-24.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.