TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gen.Gof Gen.G, KT Rolster
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$490,430
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$594,213

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $490,430 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 380 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5286…0d47backed Gen.G49c50,000$24,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,677.9827637.3%103 W · 173 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Gen.G48c43,074$20,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,198.41,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Gen.G50c40,000$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,00091854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed KT Rolster50c33,329$16,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,664.538235.6%136 W · 246 L-15.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cf6…0cbdbacked KT Rolster51c24,626$12,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,510.9911938.7%46 W · 73 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc04e…75d9backed KT Rolster51c20,000$10,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,199.977147.9%34 W · 37 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef27…381bbacked KT Rolster52c19,231$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0008951.7%46 W · 43 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Gen.G48c15,581$7,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,177.41,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a4c…1f30backed Gen.G50c14,000$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,00016356.4%92 W · 71 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked KT Rolster50c13,566$6,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,78357246%263 W · 309 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfed1…eedbbacked KT Rolster52c12,401$6,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,447.687030%21 W · 49 L-8.4wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-34.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked KT Rolster50c11,000$5,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,49025447.6%121 W · 133 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Gen.G50c10,516$5,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,217.861,20743.5%525 W · 682 L-14.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked Gen.G50c10,043$5,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,021.51,50154.5%818 W · 683 L+34.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe903…6adbbacked KT Rolster50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00014060%84 W · 56 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-5.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Gen.G50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0001,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed KT Rolster51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,099.923447.9%112 W · 122 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd02a…4771backed KT Rolster51c9,538$4,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,870.219232.8%63 W · 129 L-17.2wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-23.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed KT Rolster49c9,140$4,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,478.6425546.3%118 W · 137 L+0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Gen.G50c8,746$4,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,416.7367552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked KT Rolster49c8,629$4,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,228.4132555.7%181 W · 144 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f03…b1bebacked Gen.G50c8,500$4,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,2751,13252.5%594 W · 538 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd408…e85cbacked Gen.G50c8,269$4,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,163.3338462%238 W · 146 L-0.4wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x108d…b85dbacked Gen.G51c8,000$4,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9202250%11 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x835c…a5eebacked KT Rolster51c8,000$4,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0802544%11 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Gen.G49c7,500$3,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,824.9790348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3d2…fe85backed Gen.G50c7,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,50015543.9%68 W · 87 L+0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed KT Rolster50c5,697$2,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,851.22,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71cf…10fdbacked KT Rolster51c5,500$2,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,794.973429.4%10 W · 24 L-5.7wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-29.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked KT Rolster51c5,075$2,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,588.047754.5%42 W · 35 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6768…4ef1backed Gen.G49c5,033$2,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,566.710449%51 W · 53 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24d4…4e1dbacked KT Rolster51c4,988$2,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,54427142.4%115 W · 156 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Gen.G49c4,644$2,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,368.4432941%135 W · 194 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf949…3220backed KT Rolster51c4,242$2,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,163.428951.7%46 W · 43 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-10.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed KT Rolster51c4,227$2,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,15617933%59 W · 120 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed KT Rolster50c4,140$2,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0705959.3%35 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked KT Rolster51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,04049940.7%203 W · 296 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed KT Rolster50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00047455.3%262 W · 212 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked KT Rolster50c3,979$1,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,989.651,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Gen.G51c3,922$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.6766947.8%320 W · 349 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x003b…ace5backed KT Rolster51c3,900$1,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9892661.5%16 W · 10 L+4.2wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+54.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc70b…d2f2backed KT Rolster51c3,825$1,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,950.741931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.2wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed KT Rolster51c3,483$1,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,776.1513846.4%64 W · 74 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e43…6583backed Gen.G51c3,230$1,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,595.7419959.8%119 W · 80 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f46…9097backed KT Rolster51c3,229$1,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6474940.8%20 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdd2…0abfbacked KT Rolster50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5005825.9%15 W · 43 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-27.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe077…369bbacked Gen.G49c2,966$1,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,512.74763.8%30 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed KT Rolster51c2,941$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50057957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Gen.G50c2,867$1,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,433.664749.9%323 W · 324 L-24.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa487…9439backed KT Rolster53c2,644$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400.411538.3%44 W · 71 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ac5…bb92backed Gen.G49c2,535$1,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,292.6311439.5%45 W · 69 L-11.6wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-30%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed KT Rolster50c2,415$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.651,30838.6%505 W · 803 L-64.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb726…4d2bbacked KT Rolster41c2,402$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.21723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.19per pick43cpaid-52.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed Gen.G76c2,306$1,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.4337948.3%183 W · 196 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Gen.G51c2,245$1,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.163944.6%285 W · 354 L-18.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe647…2040backed KT Rolster52c2,089$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.46553.8%35 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed KT Rolster50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00031337.7%118 W · 195 L-15.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed KT Rolster53c2,000$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.2541343.8%181 W · 232 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224b…8927backed KT Rolster51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02042050.5%212 W · 208 L+27.9wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Gen.G51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98032145.5%146 W · 175 L+11.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbca…ca8dbacked KT Rolster50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010049%49 W · 51 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Gen.G50c2,000$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,009.991,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5217…ec29backed KT Rolster49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.9921154.5%115 W · 96 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2972…3f29backed Gen.G51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.78862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+48.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Gen.G49c1,865$916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.921,06154.7%580 W · 481 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f4e…b690backed Gen.G50c1,720$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.282554.8%452 W · 373 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked KT Rolster50c1,680$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84022748%109 W · 118 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed KT Rolster51c1,639$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.8810839.8%43 W · 65 L-12.7wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-27.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x974b…076ebacked Gen.G48c1,628$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.669457.4%54 W · 40 L+11.2wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+36.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed Gen.G50c1,589$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.5720557.1%117 W · 88 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xebc6…448ebacked KT Rolster47c1,514$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7177824.4%19 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4068…aeb1backed Gen.G49c1,500$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76515431.8%49 W · 105 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-33.5%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked KT Rolster54c1,337$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.5490537.5%339 W · 566 L-18.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c15…9a45backed Gen.G49c1,317$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.4912341.5%51 W · 72 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd273…9a33backed KT Rolster50c1,230$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6152634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Gen.G50c1,196$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.062,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4377…74c2backed KT Rolster50c1,181$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.086752.2%35 W · 32 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+30.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed KT Rolster51c1,172$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.6647533.3%158 W · 317 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x951f…e430backed Gen.G50c1,100$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55121946.6%102 W · 117 L+1.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked Gen.G60c1,073$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.0526844%118 W · 150 L-37.1wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-26.2%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Gen.G37c1,070$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.082,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed KT Rolster50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,15645.1%521 W · 635 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed KT Rolster50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50039541.3%163 W · 232 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c65…4f24backed Gen.G49c999.99$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.997657.9%44 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Gen.G50c970.26$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.1311561.7%71 W · 44 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb6c…d38ebacked KT Rolster51c966.77$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.0112850%64 W · 64 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec36…c7f9backed KT Rolster51c962.29$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.77425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-66.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Gen.G49c950.76$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.8951852.7%273 W · 245 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed KT Rolster49c940.82$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.832,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72a6…cfefbacked KT Rolster50c928.56$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.2829338.6%113 W · 180 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9a4…8427backed KT Rolster51c927.45$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47317947.5%85 W · 94 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked KT Rolster49c888$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.121,60948.4%779 W · 830 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed Gen.G50c880.3$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.320551.7%106 W · 99 L+1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed Gen.G48c827$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.0482953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Gen.G51c823.53$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.5328253.5%151 W · 131 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked KT Rolster49c802.19$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.0732350.8%164 W · 159 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd66…f510backed KT Rolster51c800$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4082445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Gen.G49c788$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.8810546.7%49 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x839b…16b8backed KT Rolster50c758$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1926…83ccbacked Gen.G48c750.33$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.333551.4%18 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.