TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gen.Gof Gen.G, KT Rolster
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,194,502
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,394,615

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,194,502 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 486 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x52ec…a6f3backed KT Rolster8c91,680$7,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,704.8281143.5%353 W · 458 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed KT Rolster18c57,235$10,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,028.511,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Gen.G80c48,492$38,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,917.561,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6373…a0b7backed KT Rolster24c42,310$10,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,328.079621.9%21 W · 75 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed KT Rolster2c37,944$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.1889347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x55a1…db28backed KT Rolster19c30,844$5,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,994.982250%11 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed KT Rolster13c28,423$3,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,743.2310353.4%55 W · 48 L+9.4wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Gen.G77c23,119$17,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,246.211,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe548…a9febacked KT Rolster22c20,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,399.9917555.4%97 W · 78 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Gen.G78c19,961$15,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,429.871,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Gen.G79c19,341$15,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,152.791,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…21d7backed KT Rolster15c18,968$2,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,892.695932.2%19 W · 40 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed KT Rolster22c17,679$3,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,892.963,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed KT Rolster18c17,419$3,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,191.348149.7%239 W · 242 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e6…d471backed Gen.G80c15,000$11,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0503342.4%14 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-28.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd995…2b51backed KT Rolster9c14,051$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20019122.5%43 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x723b…7bbebacked KT Rolster22c13,208$2,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,905.851838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Gen.G79c12,505$9,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,594.921,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x44ee…68f3backed KT Rolster7c12,150$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked KT Rolster15c11,935$1,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,829.322,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa980…30a1backed KT Rolster7c10,189$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.1944120%88 W · 353 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed KT Rolster22c10,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2005959.3%35 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6149…b48cbacked KT Rolster12c10,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001030%3 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+25.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d82…1b86backed KT Rolster1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100593.4%2 W · 57 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-40.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked KT Rolster23c10,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.9830945.3%140 W · 169 L+1.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Gen.G77c9,091$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,090.9157957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32eb…ded0backed KT Rolster20c9,089$1,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,853.2331644.3%140 W · 176 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6100…ed95backed Gen.G80c9,037$7,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,808.358259.8%49 W · 33 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+9.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked KT Rolster20c8,713$1,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,778.441,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed KT Rolster20c8,579$1,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,747.3385836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d66…7799backed KT Rolster20c7,670$1,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,518.44240.5%17 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed KT Rolster11c7,308$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823.0894134.5%325 W · 616 L+33.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked Gen.G76c7,091$5,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,678.9532555.7%181 W · 144 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed KT Rolster16c6,811$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.7176142%320 W · 441 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Gen.G80c6,709$5,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,367.8959554.1%322 W · 273 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed KT Rolster20c6,705$1,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,333.6526942.4%114 W · 155 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4a8…246dbacked Gen.G75c6,300$4,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.191040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed KT Rolster15c6,000$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87017342.8%74 W · 99 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed KT Rolster5c6,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002416.7%4 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-48.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee7c…70f2backed KT Rolster12c5,880$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.4548533.6%163 W · 322 L+23.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked KT Rolster14c5,626$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.141,06154.7%580 W · 481 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b42…62afbacked KT Rolster13c5,603$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.9334536.5%126 W · 219 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked KT Rolster20c5,569$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08637640.2%151 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed KT Rolster4c5,538$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.377869.8%77 W · 709 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d2b…afc5backed KT Rolster17c5,519$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.523754.1%20 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed KT Rolster23c5,172$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,189.6721049.5%104 W · 106 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked Gen.G78c5,138$4,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.361,50154.5%818 W · 683 L+34.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed Gen.G78c5,000$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,10016258%94 W · 68 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4068…aeb1backed KT Rolster17c5,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86015431.8%49 W · 105 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-33.5%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked Gen.G80c4,750$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95067250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ac7…8a43backed KT Rolster6c4,244$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.1718132.6%59 W · 122 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+50.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7ee…fe5dbacked KT Rolster24c4,167$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00035353.5%189 W · 164 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1607…79bebacked KT Rolster5c4,030$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.9628.1%5 W · 57 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-38.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked KT Rolster15c3,826$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.795041.6%395 W · 555 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x24d4…4e1dbacked KT Rolster21c3,775$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80027142.4%115 W · 156 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed KT Rolster9c3,686$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.192,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ced…0feebacked KT Rolster20c3,650$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73076955%423 W · 346 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked KT Rolster7c3,428$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.416297%44 W · 585 L-2.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae5e…13bebacked Gen.G74c3,411$2,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.9749541.6%206 W · 289 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed Gen.G80c3,325$2,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66558850.5%297 W · 291 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a7…9631backed KT Rolster26c3,163$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.52231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-8.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd621…b9efbacked KT Rolster7c3,100$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.9925241.3%104 W · 148 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x47e3…e736backed KT Rolster22c3,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9348…6664backed Gen.G80c2,941$2,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59028859%170 W · 118 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ff5…d3ffbacked KT Rolster19c2,939$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.39520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick58cpaid-75%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed KT Rolster21c2,892$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.0447838.7%185 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed KT Rolster10c2,814$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.092,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf490…63afbacked KT Rolster19c2,689$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.9117738.4%68 W · 109 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b89…a4cdbacked Gen.G77c2,586$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.9271057%405 W · 305 L+41.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked KT Rolster20c2,560$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.287844.2%388 W · 490 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed KT Rolster3c2,500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755920%0 W · 592 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Gen.G80c2,479$1,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.241,15645.1%521 W · 635 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed KT Rolster14c2,446$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.5476639.6%303 W · 463 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Gen.G80c2,438$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.51,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…a265backed KT Rolster21c2,393$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50011942.9%51 W · 68 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd32f…1496backed KT Rolster17c2,370$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.122157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50b1…861bbacked Gen.G75c2,350$1,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.133949%166 W · 173 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6b3…9441backed KT Rolster13c2,330$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.4513240.9%54 W · 78 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed KT Rolster22c2,322$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.5547533.3%158 W · 317 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed KT Rolster11c2,319$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.523,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb97b…87dcbacked KT Rolster19c2,288$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.0614654.8%80 W · 66 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee80…f34ebacked Gen.G78c2,240$1,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.4935159.5%209 W · 142 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f4b…0b44backed Gen.G79c2,140$1,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.9742455%233 W · 191 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed KT Rolster4c2,119$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.331,54354.8%845 W · 698 L+75.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked KT Rolster16c2,099$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.9435341.9%148 W · 205 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked KT Rolster12c2,095$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.022,34140.3%943 W · 1,398 L-61.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed KT Rolster25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9989943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed KT Rolster19c1,986$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.682,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4270…6168backed KT Rolster3c1,923$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.352650%13 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4283…fbd4backed KT Rolster19c1,880$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.845041.1%185 W · 265 L-25.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed KT Rolster22c1,857$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.6154529.7%162 W · 383 L-34.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x80d9…b694backed KT Rolster22c1,808$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.843847.4%18 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Gen.G78c1,790$1,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.791,20743.5%525 W · 682 L-14.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed KT Rolster20c1,778$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36026635%93 W · 173 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed KT Rolster16c1,759$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28156432.1%181 W · 383 L-2.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x435f…2de6backed KT Rolster14c1,580$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.12236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a86…cc01backed KT Rolster20c1,515$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30317439.7%69 W · 105 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked KT Rolster18c1,501$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.171,06347.2%502 W · 561 L-2.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked Gen.G74c1,500$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3901,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b89…fdf9backed KT Rolster7c1,500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11052650.8%267 W · 259 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.