TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MOUZof FURIA, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$479,885
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$521,974

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $479,885 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 452 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcf60…a6f5backed FURIA60c75,450$45,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,198.1150054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed MOUZ34c40,179$13,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,518.2623355.4%129 W · 104 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked MOUZ40c31,594$12,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,107.7641040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked FURIA21c20,207$4,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,184.8421251.4%109 W · 103 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked FURIA66c19,250$12,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,611.9525555.3%141 W · 114 L+1.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed MOUZ54c16,898$9,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,801.481843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed MOUZ35c12,970$4,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,415.5546149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked MOUZ35c12,286$4,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,985.7125655.1%141 W · 115 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed MOUZ64c11,482$7,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,138.241,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96f7…d6aebacked MOUZ35c11,111$3,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,222.0922129.9%66 W · 155 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed FURIA62c10,209$6,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,34537646.3%174 W · 202 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8688…9d8cbacked MOUZ36c8,009$2,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,126.047948.1%38 W · 41 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked FURIA65c7,049$4,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,562.4238358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb875…ac87backed FURIA44c6,880$3,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,03016949.1%83 W · 86 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc05…013abacked FURIA48c6,792$3,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,291.854971.4%35 W · 14 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd8a5…26a1backed FURIA10c6,530$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.6115749.7%78 W · 79 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked FURIA55c6,260$3,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,441.9612956.6%73 W · 56 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd8d…a7a8backed MOUZ37c6,000$2,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,7804748.9%23 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked MOUZ53c5,356$2,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,493.581,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed MOUZ36c5,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,20036645.4%166 W · 200 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc694…1171backed FURIA3c4,952$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.3147641.6%198 W · 278 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked MOUZ60c4,735$2,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,898.241,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d03…100ebacked FURIA60c4,235$2,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,532.4141069.3%284 W · 126 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed MOUZ29c4,001$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,841.0578639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0111…1071backed MOUZ60c4,000$2,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,603.262564%16 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+31.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked MOUZ38c4,000$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4801,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ40c3,798$1,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,280.721,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked FURIA66c3,667$2,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,42015053.3%80 W · 70 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed MOUZ78c3,294$2,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.8138868.3%265 W · 123 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+3.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked FURIA6c3,226$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.4432832.3%106 W · 222 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ff8…5e5dbacked FURIA66c3,057$2,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,017.99549.5%47 W · 48 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed FURIA66c3,030$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00022253.2%118 W · 104 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa83f…b857backed MOUZ40c3,000$1,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,791.9612749.6%63 W · 64 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7029…1136backed MOUZ36c3,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,92021351.2%109 W · 104 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfed1…eedbbacked MOUZ36c3,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9202544%11 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked MOUZ33c2,906$964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,941.431,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x118c…3fffbacked MOUZ35c2,850$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,852.54353.5%23 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed MOUZ37c2,669$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,692.822,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed FURIA66c2,592$1,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,710.983164.5%20 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+16%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x59ad…8a1abacked FURIA45c2,550$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.51258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked MOUZ36c2,517$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,623.649148.4%44 W · 47 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc84…04b2backed FURIA35c2,513$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.585444.4%24 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd528…a2d2backed FURIA38c2,500$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.6518056.7%102 W · 78 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked FURIA33c2,444$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8031,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed MOUZ40c2,388$963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,424.9188746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked MOUZ36c2,340$842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,497.7863541.9%266 W · 369 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddfb…d9bfbacked MOUZ36c2,338$842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,496.31955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf424…9723backed FURIA20c2,283$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.9721135.5%75 W · 136 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked MOUZ35c2,265$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,480.7332542.2%137 W · 188 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x951f…e430backed FURIA50c2,218$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10012441.1%51 W · 73 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed MOUZ48c2,132$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,101.6387047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed MOUZ34c2,062$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,360.9257641.1%237 W · 339 L-21.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked FURIA22c2,055$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45235745.4%162 W · 195 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x281d…6adfbacked FURIA66c2,052$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,350.51758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bb3…4268backed FURIA35c1,979$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.111650%8 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f63…9551backed FURIA66c1,925$1,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,270.54252.4%22 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ff…906cbacked FURIA65c1,925$1,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,251.243351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd65…5726backed FURIA66c1,900$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2542751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbf3…aa3abacked FURIA46c1,873$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.423249.1%114 W · 118 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed MOUZ33c1,800$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,197.9914847.3%70 W · 78 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc50c…fe5dbacked FURIA17c1,765$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004660.9%28 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked MOUZ59c1,718$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.575543.6%24 W · 31 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked FURIA31c1,704$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.762,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc714…d152backed FURIA63c1,694$1,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071.8211949.6%59 W · 60 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked MOUZ45c1,658$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.135,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f0b…f901backed FURIA39c1,635$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.4135953.2%191 W · 168 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed FURIA63c1,550$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.513357.1%76 W · 57 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b14…039bbacked FURIA65c1,516$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.1611871.2%84 W · 34 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd0e9…67ffbacked FURIA66c1,500$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9902740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b39…3234backed FURIA25c1,500$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38031345%141 W · 172 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked FURIA1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1569624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked FURIA66c1,448$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.7961754.8%338 W · 279 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed FURIA60c1,400$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84055845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x927c…6633backed FURIA22c1,400$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.983040%12 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-32.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x495d…68d8backed MOUZ59c1,357$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.4217554.9%96 W · 79 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77ac…1bf6backed FURIA71c1,224$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.7827961.3%171 W · 108 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa113…bb53backed MOUZ35c1,187$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.647353.4%39 W · 34 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+139.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x36e9…d246backed FURIA69c1,157$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.9926368.8%181 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-1.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed FURIA66c1,155$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.313754%74 W · 63 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed FURIA52c1,154$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60015155%83 W · 68 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed FURIA44c1,103$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.172,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked FURIA43c1,029$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.761,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed MOUZ57c1,002$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.965,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed MOUZ57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43018442.9%79 W · 105 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb71…4371backed MOUZ36c1,000$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64085851.6%443 W · 415 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe02…be9dbacked MOUZ80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20031253.5%167 W · 145 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e43…6583backed FURIA65c1,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65013360.2%80 W · 53 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked FURIA55c999.96$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.9839548.6%192 W · 203 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe59c…4da7backed MOUZ71c990.46$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.2315264.5%98 W · 54 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed MOUZ35c968.89$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.7828549.5%141 W · 144 L+1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee80…f34ebacked FURIA60c965.47$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.535460.7%215 W · 139 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ac…c9f4backed FURIA52c950.9$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.0224756.7%140 W · 107 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bfe…1220backed FURIA58c927.71$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.789266.3%61 W · 31 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed FURIA40c924.57$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.256,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed FURIA11c922.97$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5637946.4%176 W · 203 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked MOUZ35c900$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58519346.1%89 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb378…e4c0backed FURIA7c900$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6138312.8%49 W · 334 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd71c…20b3backed FURIA22c889.02$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.1310339.8%41 W · 62 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1926…83ccbacked FURIA53c874.17$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.472254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed FURIA66c874$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.8432732.4%106 W · 221 L-0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.