Fifa International · resolved market
Will 9+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdba4544f88b277a3ffade8e578b6a3d32b935e1db632dbec1272acb60d96fdd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16da…05c0backed Yes | 5c | 8,334$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.01 | 219 | 37.9%83 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d8…e9a1backed Yes | 13c | 7,116$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.88 | 116 | 42.2%49 W · 67 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 3c | 5,915$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.93 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…002abacked Yes | 13c | 2,375$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.95 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf6…4a06backed Yes | 12c | 1,977$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,857$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.05 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Yes | 19c | 1,630$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.35 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | +18.4wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,547$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.14 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 9c | 1,123$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 218 | 50%109 W · 109 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 948.25$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 167 | 4.2%7 W · 160 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 15c | 755.15$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.97 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 9c | 661$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 11c | 657$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.47 | 194 | 45.4%88 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 79c | 486.04$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.07 | 218 | 36.2%79 W · 139 L | -19.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed Yes | 6c | 474.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 7c | 390$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 302 | 41.4%125 W · 177 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 15c | 337.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x428f…5d1bbacked No | 80c | 266.05$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x557e…5007backed Yes | 19c | 263.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 217 | 55.3%120 W · 97 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1f…6465backed Yes | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5970…c99bbacked Yes | 17c | 226.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed Yes | 18c | 215.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd067…dc4ebacked Yes | 17c | 211.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…15f9backed Yes | 17c | 197.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 9c | 190$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 14c | 175.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 16c | 171.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 156.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3650…d17cbacked No | 80c | 154.68$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 133.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 80c | 122$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 131 | 48.9%64 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 11c | 121.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Yes | 13c | 117.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 215 | 17.2%37 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af7…9842backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 13c | 95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a0…2746backed Yes | 21c | 89.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 197 | 39.6%78 W · 119 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c4…7ebfbacked Yes | 20c | 81.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 14c | 80.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 232 | 45.7%106 W · 126 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 17c | 72.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 176 | 32.4%57 W · 119 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4f…a849backed Yes | 14c | 71.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f92…ecc7backed No | 80c | 70.48$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -48%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb92a…f51cbacked No | 80c | 62.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed Yes | 18c | 57.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 19c | 56.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6216…1bd4backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 237 | 41.8%99 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…55d6backed No | 80c | 37.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 166 | 46.4%77 W · 89 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 9+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will 2+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will 3+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will 4+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will 5+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will 6+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will 8+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.