Fifa International · resolved market
Will 4+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2a98aa4b10506dacb9c3726265495221fc0925f3561a38f289eb041694391ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fd8…ce32backed No | 15c | 17,335$2,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,642.27 | 133 | 30.1%40 W · 93 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16da…05c0backed No | 19c | 3,528$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.49 | 219 | 37.9%83 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 78c | 2,150$1,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.96 | 173 | 40.5%70 W · 103 L | +11.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 4c | 1,983$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 167 | 4.2%7 W · 160 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 79c | 1,400$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 19c | 767.45$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.75 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 20c | 597.48$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.71 | 1,475 | 44.9%663 W · 812 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…3e28backed Yes | 75c | 448.56$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.56 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 350$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 79c | 326$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.95 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 23c | 300$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 13c | 274$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 80c | 252$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 194 | 45.4%88 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…2d44backed Yes | 68c | 195.05$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed No | 10c | 175.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 215 | 17.2%37 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked No | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 25c | 166.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 235 | 43%101 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…5977backed No | 16c | 154$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 8c | 146.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 13c | 130.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4804…3f54backed Yes | 76c | 124.27$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629e…6be4backed Yes | 79c | 105.56$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 26c | 100.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 486 | 36.6%178 W · 308 L | -48.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6216…1bd4backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 237 | 41.8%99 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 51c | 79.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 171 | 38%65 W · 106 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 20c | 72.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af7…9842backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed No | 22c | 50.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…0cabbacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 238 | 55.5%132 W · 106 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5970…c99bbacked Yes | 75c | 49.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2774…24f0backed Yes | 75c | 49.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd067…dc4ebacked Yes | 75c | 48.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 77c | 41.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 78c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 198 | 74.7%148 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 163 | 33.7%55 W · 108 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed Yes | 67c | 21.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe428…a0e8backed Yes | 68c | 17.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed Yes | 67c | 17.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 4+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will 2+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will 3+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will 5+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will 6+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will 8+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will 9+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.