Fifa International · resolved market
Will 6+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf58f7486ced0a97dcae723b8e13944f862b0d78f5ebecd10184097d5e4b4475c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fd8…ce32backed No | 50c | 21,631$10,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,836.74 | 133 | 30.1%40 W · 93 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d8…e9a1backed Yes | 50c | 10,010$5,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,039.82 | 116 | 42.2%49 W · 67 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16da…05c0backed No | 55c | 5,978$3,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,690.41 | 219 | 37.9%83 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 2c | 5,771$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.96 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 57c | 3,240$1,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,843.64 | 173 | 40.5%70 W · 103 L | +11.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…e5fdbacked Yes | 56c | 3,000$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 20c | 3,000$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed No | 60c | 2,938$1,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.2 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 60c | 1,495$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.48 | 218 | 50%109 W · 109 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Yes | 41c | 582.26$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.64 | 239 | 43.5%104 W · 135 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4af7…9842backed Yes | 35c | 564.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 3c | 523.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1e…fbb1backed Yes | 28c | 500$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.85 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd6…10d4backed Yes | 40c | 484.67$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.46 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 481.17$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.53 | 550 | 44.7%246 W · 304 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed Yes | 53c | 445.04$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.83 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 433$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb355…f149backed No | 29c | 400$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa4…0dfebacked No | 36c | 379$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.56 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 51c | 356.4$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.07 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…9722backed No | 44c | 350$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.6 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 48c | 320$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.4 | 302 | 41.4%125 W · 177 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 56c | 300.46$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.07 | 1,475 | 44.9%663 W · 812 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 32c | 275.16$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.79 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5b…7744backed No | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 38c | 265.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.89 | 194 | 45.4%88 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Yes | 40c | 231.64$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.66 | 481 | 40.1%193 W · 288 L | -17.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…0cabbacked Yes | 28c | 200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 238 | 55.5%132 W · 106 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1a…7a49backed Yes | 69c | 195.08$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.16 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 49c | 185.59$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.94 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 54c | 177$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.95 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Yes | 53c | 166.04$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 624 | 52.7%329 W · 295 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed Yes | 12c | 162.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…ebe5backed Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256f…2fa5backed No | 26c | 155.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.87 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 65c | 147.17$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.83 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b7…9821backed Yes | 45c | 147.02$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9559…4913backed No | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6216…1bd4backed No | 41c | 140$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 237 | 41.8%99 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed Yes | 52c | 131.66$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 185 | 38.9%72 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x929a…5ab4backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 25c | 120$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.51 | 144 | 36.1%52 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…a94ebacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 56c | 105$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 222 | 43.7%97 W · 125 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe838…b694backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa1…deebbacked No | 22c | 97.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.26 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +115.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked Yes | 56c | 96.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.22 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Yes | 25c | 95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -27%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 56c | 87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…d532backed Yes | 30c | 87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 33c | 76.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d65…a790backed Yes | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629e…6be4backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ea…5843backed No | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23d6…18a2backed Yes | 48c | 57.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…228fbacked Yes | 44c | 55.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 159 | 42.1%67 W · 92 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68ee…9d12backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 263 | 44.1%116 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 232 | 45.7%106 W · 126 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 48c | 47.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 235 | 43%101 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe358…0822backed No | 47c | 42.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 47c | 37.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 486 | 36.6%178 W · 308 L | -48.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x532f…6ecdbacked Yes | 57c | 35.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 66c | 31.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x988a…c110backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed Yes | 61c | 27.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 6+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will 2+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will 3+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will 4+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will 5+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will 8+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will 9+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.