Will 8+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65c80871806764cbc18a71b7cbff997a06fa08fc4d4af2cd3f0f7120cb2efd4a

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $144,846
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $105,181

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $144,846 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16da…05c0backed Yes	9c	25,070$2,279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,279.24	219	37.9%83 W · 136 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes	6c	19,126$1,112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,112.05	66	22.7%15 W · 51 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1104…002abacked Yes	20c	10,841$2,151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,150.77	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-4.0wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-48%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd5d8…e9a1backed Yes	21c	9,000$1,928 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,927.8	116	42.2%49 W · 67 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed Yes	22c	4,382$955 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$955.41	139	57.6%80 W · 59 L	+18.4wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes	21c	3,245$687 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$687.38	260	37.3%97 W · 163 L	-6.6wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes	15c	3,206$493 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$493.34	218	50%109 W · 109 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes	1c	3,200$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.2	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-12%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	23c	3,098$699 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$699.29	1,067	49.1%524 W · 543 L	+7.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes	1c	2,241$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.01	56	3.6%2 W · 54 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+93.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	8c	1,049$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.1	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	6c	1,018$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.89	167	4.2%7 W · 160 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes	14c	973.35$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.06	173	40.5%70 W · 103 L	+11.1wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes	13c	703$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.62	163	33.7%55 W · 108 L	-8.7wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	20c	664$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.52	412	31.6%130 W · 282 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked No	79c	653.62$515 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.57	1,475	44.9%663 W · 812 L	-4.8wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf79c…cb96backed Yes	13c	648.47$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.4	920	38.5%354 W · 566 L	-21.8wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed Yes	16c	501$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.14	69	40.6%28 W · 41 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bf6…4a06backed Yes	22c	500$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.20per pick	40cpaid	-73.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x71a5…b594backed Yes	27c	497.85$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.07	185	38.9%72 W · 113 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-12%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes	27c	493.48$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.11	302	41.4%125 W · 177 L	-8.2wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No	71c	488.89$346 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142.86	85	47.1%40 W · 45 L	+6.8wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	+24.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	13c	460$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.02	662	39.6%262 W · 400 L	-48.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed No	79c	444.99$351 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.35	156	46.2%72 W · 84 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a91…0776backed Yes	29c	396.19$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.9	65	41.5%27 W · 38 L	-4.8wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-17%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	3c	392.33$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.77	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No	77c	385$296 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.65	320	44.1%141 W · 179 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	13c	365.46$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.33	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed Yes	11c	353.63$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.19	77	33.8%26 W · 51 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8454…331abacked Yes	22c	300$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	104	41.3%43 W · 61 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes	15c	300$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	131	48.9%64 W · 67 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed Yes	9c	286.31$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.84	38	31.6%12 W · 26 L	-3.3wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes	17c	280$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.6	61	50.8%31 W · 30 L	-3.0wins	-0.05per pick	56cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d00…0121backed No	80c	271.85$217 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.37	80	41.3%33 W · 47 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf26c…ebe5backed No	79c	253.16$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.16	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	60cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked Yes	23c	250$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.57	78	38.5%30 W · 48 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2277…6604backed Yes	20c	244.93$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.99	186	41.9%78 W · 108 L	-7.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b25…ff39backed Yes	29c	241.37$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	58	37.9%22 W · 36 L	-3.0wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed Yes	23c	225$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.7	254	43.7%111 W · 143 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e4f…a849backed Yes	19c	222.2$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.11	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes	19c	220.01$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.81	194	45.4%88 W · 106 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes	20c	200$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	176	32.4%57 W · 119 L	-8.5wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No	73c	194.9$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.72	235	43%101 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	13c	177.07$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.14	293	7.5%22 W · 271 L	-13.2wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f0…78babacked Yes	24c	162$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.88	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+2.0wins	+0.16per pick	38cpaid	+43.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x90f4…83a7backed Yes	29c	150.88$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.76	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.09per pick	58cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked Yes	17c	150$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.88	47	40.4%19 W · 28 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d76…044ebacked Yes	29c	138$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.02	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f92…ecc7backed Yes	29c	131.19$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.05	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	-3.8wins	-0.12per pick	43cpaid	-48%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No	80c	131$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.69	116	36.2%42 W · 74 L	-7.6wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes	18c	121.38$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.85	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	-2.1wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2db…ffcbbacked Yes	20c	105.54$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.11	61	42.6%26 W · 35 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ea7…7fc0backed Yes	10c	105$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	49	46.9%23 W · 26 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7bab…8322backed Yes	25c	100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	53	32.1%17 W · 36 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes	27c	100$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	130	51.5%67 W · 63 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed Yes	25c	100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	84	40.5%34 W · 50 L	-4.5wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4207…b81bbacked No	62c	100$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0e0…016abacked No	75c	100$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	63	41.3%26 W · 37 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb92a…f51cbacked Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	50	50%25 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74aa…2c3fbacked No	75c	100$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	51	43.1%22 W · 29 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed Yes	26c	100$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	82	18.3%15 W · 67 L	-6.0wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf763…8d83backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+2.2wins	+0.31per pick	26cpaid	+65.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2352…1d44backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes	11c	94.11$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.66	486	36.6%178 W · 308 L	-48.4wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0x23d6…18a2backed Yes	19c	91.08$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.31	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-2.2wins	-0.17per pick	48cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4af7…9842backed Yes	25c	80$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	58	50%29 W · 29 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8de2…8483backed Yes	19c	78.15$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	85	37.6%32 W · 53 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6216…1bd4backed No	66c	74.16$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.21	237	41.8%99 W · 138 L	+7.6wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No	70c	74.16$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.25	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2a…58d1backed Yes	27c	70.52$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.04	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	29cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1237…06afbacked No	75c	62.6$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.65	80	41.3%33 W · 47 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes	30c	53.1$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.67	764	45.9%351 W · 413 L	-10.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8144…8472backed Yes	24c	52$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.48	35	40%14 W · 21 L	-3.0wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x68cc…78e0backed Yes	23c	50.86$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.68	215	17.2%37 W · 178 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cd5…5551backed No	69c	50.48$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.48	11	81.8%9 W · 2 L	+3.5wins	+0.32per pick	50cpaid	+93.9%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed Yes	29c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	166	46.4%77 W · 89 L	-7.7wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82fb…bed6backed Yes	25c	50$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	59	44.1%26 W · 33 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked Yes	25c	50$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	127	35.4%45 W · 82 L	-4.2wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629e…6be4backed No	77c	50$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.5	25	64%16 W · 9 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ac…80c0backed No	75c	50$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.5	53	86.8%46 W · 7 L	+9.6wins	+0.18per pick	69cpaid	+35.9%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0x1671…2f6dbacked Yes	29c	35$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.15	49	36.7%18 W · 31 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64a0…9d96backed No	71c	35$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.15	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.7wins	+0.24per pick	47cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb226…4163backed No	76c	27.49$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.6	73	68.5%50 W · 23 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	66cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No	71c	21$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.09	162	46.9%76 W · 86 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will 8+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
Will 2+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
Will 3+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
Will 4+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
Will 5+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Will 6+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Will 9+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will 8+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event