TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$281,289
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$282,373

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $281,289 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 331 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0086…1b8cbacked Yes32c99,558$32,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,068.16633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes51c40,486$20,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,596.1711853.4%63 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed No59c16,394$9,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,784.214161%25 W · 16 L+8.3wins+0.20per pick41cpaid+51.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No65c14,651$9,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,088.0643243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x70ca…2443backed Yes1c10,410$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.971118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.27per pick45cpaid-47%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No49c10,075$4,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,140.4510646.2%49 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No71c9,468$6,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,731.0315558.7%91 W · 64 L+0.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed No40c6,385$2,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,830.7313444.8%60 W · 74 L+17.1wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+13.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed No54c5,222$2,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,402.138237.8%31 W · 51 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed No55c5,000$2,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,244.9814240.8%58 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No52c4,662$2,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,217.6114637%54 W · 92 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa43d…00f4backed No57c4,460$2,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,916.41952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc78e…4718backed No57c4,295$2,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,826.822352.2%12 W · 11 L+5.0wins+0.22per pick30cpaid+23%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x3e0a…b9ccbacked No49c4,019$1,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,043.032433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-33.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No51c3,600$1,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,756.8552850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No47c3,566$1,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,888.0126632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66c2…85f4backed Yes43c3,283$1,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,401.44850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+64.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No67c3,199$2,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.4818762.6%117 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x715d…80bbbacked Yes32c3,133$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.88540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No78c2,902$2,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.562751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No41c2,786$1,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,645.2310151.5%52 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2282…73e8backed No54c2,695$1,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,252.731258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+50.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2fc5…6f99backed Yes22c2,670$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32d4…b3d3backed Yes45c2,666$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,190.1875%6 W · 2 L+3.6wins+0.45per pick30cpaid+204.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No77c2,460$1,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.784548.9%22 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No33c2,307$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,545.7311349.6%56 W · 57 L+28.4wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+106.5%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0xbc29…59b4backed Yes42c2,287$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf92c…87f7backed No56c2,039$1,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894.151145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09bb…f8b1backed No57c1,754$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.398555.3%47 W · 38 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd73e…d6bfbacked Yes24c1,698$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.951030%3 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick15cpaid+24.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No71c1,608$1,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.3154934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8ac…47c7backed Yes50c1,546$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc954…6609backed No65c1,512$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.06837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No52c1,504$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.8813243.9%58 W · 74 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd24b…ef76backed No57c1,500$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6404348.8%21 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes29c1,445$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.5245723.2%106 W · 351 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4207…b81bbacked No67c1,440$961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4791546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+38.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf422…baa9backed No58c1,412$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.96475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+23.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No57c1,266$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.6439952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked No49c1,247$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.078741.4%36 W · 51 L+0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No54c1,212$649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.6823459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes46c1,134$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.3811741%48 W · 69 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e4a…6b1ebacked No56c1,110$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.65450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9578…f066backed Yes20c1,083$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.558657%49 W · 37 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+25.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3dd2…9ab1backed No47c1,017$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.562642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13ac…2c1abacked No38c1,000$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No65c861.55$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.562755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca6e…af60backed No59c794.19$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.964100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes16c750$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12019315.5%30 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a28…d58bbacked Yes37c736.93$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.471421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick44cpaid-65%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes57c716.99$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.683842.1%16 W · 22 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-25.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x88ee…c234backed Yes44c656.03$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.53633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-41.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No66c639.01$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.3912249.2%60 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes51c617.69$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.2314225.4%36 W · 106 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No55c603.95$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.9920065%130 W · 70 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2fa8…4359backed Yes2c569.94$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.561266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+24.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No55c544.85$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.4928434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked No50c539.75$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.0114947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58e6…ea94backed Yes49c516$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.26250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick62cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No71c500$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14532354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40a6…3c1fbacked No41c499.99$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.992100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+121.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d6c…688fbacked Yes40c491.52$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b65…013ebacked Yes44c486.98$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.055942.4%25 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked No49c480.91$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.565036%18 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d33…5a14backed Yes60c478.14$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.09250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd1a…5375backed Yes30c455.37$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.61425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+244.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03d9…e693backed Yes3c449.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5825%2 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick3cpaid+692.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb443…a0cabacked Yes59c428.08$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.841266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+74.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb56…c1bcbacked No56c400$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1741631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2106…4deabacked Yes42c400$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1664431.8%14 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b91…a535backed Yes60c399.98$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.9920%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes54c391.92$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.5388448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0a3…962fbacked Yes16c385.79$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603740.5%15 W · 22 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-18.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5c9e…bdb6backed No68c382$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.241450%7 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3825…04e8backed No64c369.13$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.293369.7%23 W · 10 L+6.7wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+92%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5771…799cbacked Yes28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.46per pick37cpaid+258.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed No80c350$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705552.7%29 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17ab…9581backed Yes45c340.89$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes45c334.67$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.754146.3%19 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No54c332.81$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.3516051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No72c330.15$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.8716850.6%85 W · 83 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No80c327.04$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.787058.6%41 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x047f…f959backed Yes42c314.32$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No53c300$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1415446.3%25 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x91e5…0947backed Yes51c300$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.071650%8 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No41c300$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17710844.4%48 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05ac…6d71backed Yes60c300$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf285…ab24backed No55c297.07$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.68683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick68cpaid+25.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed24…3b45backed No59c297$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.04922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-62.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked No55c288.6$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.778643%37 W · 49 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2db…ffcbbacked Yes63c288.55$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.79616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.34per pick51cpaid-77.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0003…22d8backed No55c284$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No51c280.04$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.7710344.7%46 W · 57 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-23.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x13bb…c279backed Yes36c270$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.32326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No73c263.54$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.168854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x251e…d015backed No68c258$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked No50c252.4$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.22937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ce2…5f90backed Yes47c250$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.251850%9 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No49c250$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.58142%34 W · 47 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x174b…b378backed Yes45c249.51$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.