World Politics · resolved market
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7b2cabe6466638637347bf3fac755dc0fa5ed6f31f4e59fef37496eb95dbb10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $220,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $245,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $220,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 304 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 50c | 29,123$14,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,648.34 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 75c | 23,722$17,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,934.03 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 18c | 19,366$3,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,493.3 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 45c | 11,172$5,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,167.2 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 28c | 9,168$2,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,527.43 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…baa9backed Yes | 52c | 8,551$4,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,092.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 49c | 8,081$3,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,971.14 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…a239backed Yes | 61c | 7,672$4,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,005.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…ef76backed Yes | 53c | 6,000$3,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,824.98 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac0…55f3backed Yes | 57c | 4,393$2,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,894.26 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 4,138$1,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,423.32 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b5…af46backed Yes | 60c | 3,943$2,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,577.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 3,600$1,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650.73 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2282…73e8backed Yes | 49c | 3,586$1,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,845.12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb6…93f6backed Yes | 62c | 2,947$1,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110.72 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 21c | 2,902$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bc…805dbacked Yes | 59c | 2,792$1,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c3…fb40backed No | 1c | 2,684$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 54c | 2,547$1,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161.42 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa7…6f9ebacked Yes | 44c | 2,228$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 17c | 2,208$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.8 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dca…3c13backed Yes | 64c | 2,030$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.84 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +11.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf3…68aebacked Yes | 45c | 1,910$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.57 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc78e…4718backed Yes | 56c | 1,855$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.98 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +23%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed No | 56c | 1,750$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.06 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 46c | 1,661$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.65 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 1,554$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.27 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0a…b9ccbacked Yes | 41c | 1,500$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.99 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.99 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13ac…2c1abacked Yes | 39c | 1,385$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 58c | 1,375$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.34 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…d6bfbacked No | 26c | 1,361$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.17 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 50c | 1,280$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.59 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff7…94d5backed Yes | 60c | 1,255$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 61c | 1,255$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.26 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 29c | 1,094$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.65 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4a…6b1ebacked Yes | 57c | 1,082$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 71c | 1,020$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.78 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 52c | 1,012$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.28 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 41c | 999.99$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 37c | 996.7$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.46 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3d…b866backed No | 46c | 953.45$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed Yes | 75c | 948.62$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.53 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +8.3wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xde88…144cbacked Yes | 36c | 857.69$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.88 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 43c | 840.08$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.88 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 35c | 838.2$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.26 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…c234backed Yes | 58c | 827.82$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 42c | 800$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 11c | 790.84$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.96 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x296b…2cf2backed Yes | 41c | 785$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.3 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 15c | 773.15$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.3 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 731.45$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.62 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…333fbacked Yes | 56c | 723.42$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9126…471dbacked Yes | 44c | 644.59$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…0731backed Yes | 63c | 636.72$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.23 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 32c | 623.49$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.54 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 46c | 612.3$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.93 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa8…4359backed No | 2c | 610.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05ac…6d71backed No | 61c | 600$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 43c | 598.47$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.41 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55e…f0d7backed Yes | 57c | 588.12$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 30c | 576.59$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.98 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 56c | 550$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.5 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed Yes | 57c | 550$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 55cpaid | +105%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 59c | 524.21$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.62 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda5…414fbacked Yes | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…688fbacked Yes | 54c | 491.52$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…af60backed Yes | 59c | 490$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…9133backed No | 31c | 482$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…730cbacked No | 45c | 466.67$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e3…ebc4backed Yes | 65c | 459.11$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e76…4c1cbacked Yes | 55c | 456.66$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 36c | 452.01$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.29 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +28.4wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 6c | 444$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…0d37backed Yes | 62c | 427.62$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.73 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdae…c02ebacked Yes | 57c | 418.2$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 30c | 410.4$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.71 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc10c…fc7cbacked Yes | 69c | 404.33$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.33 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd852…6fe9backed Yes | 57c | 393.07$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b91…a535backed No | 60c | 381.02$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 41c | 379.03$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.45 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 15c | 352.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 44c | 337$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.54 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 46c | 334.66$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.16 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 19c | 327.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2277…6604backed No | 62c | 310.32$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.4 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e64…b896backed Yes | 49c | 304.45$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…822ebacked Yes | 62c | 301.82$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1652…d93fbacked Yes | 57c | 301.67$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed Yes | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03d9…e693backed No | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 3cpaid | +692.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 132 | 68.9%91 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2db…ffcbbacked No | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc83e…ac22backed Yes | 79c | 281.87$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 73c | 280$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…bd65backed No | 41c | 270.19$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.67 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed Yes | 54c | 268.14$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.46 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 24c | 263.53$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9658…e446backed Yes | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64dc…8349backed Yes | 43c | 258.6$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?this page
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.