TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$220,625
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$245,267

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $220,625 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 304 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed No50c29,123$14,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,648.3411853.4%63 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes75c23,722$17,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,934.0343243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No18c19,366$3,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,493.334354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes45c11,172$5,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,167.213444.8%60 W · 74 L+17.1wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+13.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No28c9,168$2,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,527.4315558.7%91 W · 64 L+0.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf422…baa9backed Yes52c8,551$4,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,092.57475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+23.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No49c8,081$3,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,971.1410646.2%49 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x700a…a239backed Yes61c7,672$4,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,005.623100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd24b…ef76backed Yes53c6,000$3,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,824.984348.8%21 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac0…55f3backed Yes57c4,393$2,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,894.261553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No34c4,138$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,423.3239952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72b5…af46backed Yes60c3,943$2,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,577.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No46c3,600$1,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,650.7352850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2282…73e8backed Yes49c3,586$1,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,845.121258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+50.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cb6…93f6backed Yes62c2,947$1,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110.721855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No21c2,902$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6102751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9bc…805dbacked Yes59c2,792$1,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c3…fb40backed No1c2,684$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed Yes54c2,547$1,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,161.4214240.8%58 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aa7…6f9ebacked Yes44c2,228$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,253.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+128.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No17c2,208$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.813748.2%66 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dca…3c13backed Yes64c2,030$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.846756.7%38 W · 29 L+11.4wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+26.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xfdf3…68aebacked Yes45c1,910$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050.571241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc78e…4718backed Yes56c1,855$1,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.982352.2%12 W · 11 L+5.0wins+0.22per pick30cpaid+23%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xf92c…87f7backed No56c1,750$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.061145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes46c1,661$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.6510151.5%52 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No53c1,554$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.2788448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e0a…b9ccbacked Yes41c1,500$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.992433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-33.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No47c1,500$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.9913243.9%58 W · 74 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13ac…2c1abacked Yes39c1,385$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked No58c1,375$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.343842.1%16 W · 22 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-25.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd73e…d6bfbacked No26c1,361$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.171030%3 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick15cpaid+24.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked No50c1,280$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.598741.4%36 W · 51 L+0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdff7…94d5backed Yes60c1,255$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.71030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes61c1,255$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.2614947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No29c1,094$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.6545723.2%106 W · 351 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e4a…6b1ebacked Yes57c1,082$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.15450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes71c1,020$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.7854934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3dd2…9ab1backed No52c1,012$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.282642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed No41c999.99$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41016535.8%59 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No37c996.7$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.4618762.6%117 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b3d…b866backed No46c953.45$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.58333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed Yes75c948.62$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.534161%25 W · 16 L+8.3wins+0.20per pick41cpaid+51.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xde88…144cbacked Yes36c857.69$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.882445.8%11 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes43c840.08$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.8814637%54 W · 92 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No35c838.2$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.262755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88ee…c234backed Yes58c827.82$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-41.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes42c800$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46328434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No11c790.84$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9619315.5%30 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x296b…2cf2backed Yes41c785$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.33348.5%16 W · 17 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+64.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa99…dbbfbacked No15c773.15$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.32751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes44c731.45$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.6246330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x300c…333fbacked Yes56c723.42$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.31136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9126…471dbacked Yes44c644.59$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.97333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8662…0731backed Yes63c636.72$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.232920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No32c623.49$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.5412249.2%60 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No46c612.3$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.9323459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fa8…4359backed No2c610.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.81266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+24.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x05ac…6d71backed No61c600$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No43c598.47$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.4110634.9%37 W · 69 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd55e…f0d7backed Yes57c588.12$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No30c576.59$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.984548.9%22 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No56c550$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.55446.3%25 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5833…4893backed Yes57c550$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.33per pick55cpaid+105%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No59c524.21$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.6210734.6%37 W · 70 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeda5…414fbacked Yes69c500$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1554100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d6c…688fbacked Yes54c491.52$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…af60backed Yes59c490$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.34100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x882c…9133backed No31c482$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.421127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-37.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6418…730cbacked No45c466.67$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-62.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9e3…ebc4backed Yes65c459.11$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e76…4c1cbacked Yes55c456.66$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-39.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes36c452.01$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.2911349.6%56 W · 57 L+28.4wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+106.5%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No6c444$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6735258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31ff…0d37backed Yes62c427.62$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.734420.5%9 W · 35 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-50.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdae…c02ebacked Yes57c418.2$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No30c410.4$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.7114954.4%81 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc10c…fc7cbacked Yes69c404.33$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.334100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd852…6fe9backed Yes57c393.07$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b91…a535backed No60c381.02$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.7120%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed Yes41c379.03$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.456835.3%24 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No15c352.67$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9416051.9%83 W · 77 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No44c337$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.5416051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes46c334.66$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.164146.3%19 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No19c327.04$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.957058.6%41 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2277…6604backed No62c310.32$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.41931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-47.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e64…b896backed Yes49c304.45$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.45450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+98.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e49…822ebacked Yes62c301.82$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.33450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1652…d93fbacked Yes57c301.67$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9352…2227backed Yes77c300$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696100%6 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+94.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x03d9…e693backed No4c300$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5825%2 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick3cpaid+692.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes68c300$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9613268.9%91 W · 41 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2db…ffcbbacked No62c300$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.34per pick51cpaid-77.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc83e…ac22backed Yes79c281.87$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.33475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes73c280$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.68142%34 W · 47 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbb0…bd65backed No41c270.19$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.671947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91e5…0947backed Yes54c268.14$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.461650%8 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No24c263.53$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.28854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9658…e446backed Yes57c263.16$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.16250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64dc…8349backed Yes43c258.6$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.