Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a8808d7a309a210b3e413331005c3d7e8cd27d2da4a4acd4ff04b4072d2ed81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $625,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $532,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $625,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 320 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 12c | 39,532$4,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,906.02 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cb…d447backed Yes | 16c | 27,107$4,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,407.01 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 7c | 15,488$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.71 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…242abacked Yes | 8c | 15,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9e…e3c8backed Yes | 7c | 13,569$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 10c | 11,574$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.98 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 26c | 11,504$3,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,013.52 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 11,456$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.79 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc15b…38afbacked No | 75c | 10,501$7,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,617.02 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed Yes | 23c | 8,958$2,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,091.96 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 73c | 8,936$6,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,428.01 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 11c | 8,831$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.61 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b5…8378backed Yes | 3c | 8,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +279.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8d…01debacked Yes | 9c | 7,652$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.68 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 2c | 7,624$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.89 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 76c | 7,441$5,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,821.99 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…9402backed Yes | 20c | 7,167$1,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,441.12 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed Yes | 22c | 6,864$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,510.08 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 11c | 6,510$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.21 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 6,505$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 6,503$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.12 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f7…6d66backed Yes | 18c | 6,386$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc881…b071backed Yes | 25c | 6,323$1,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,612.18 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…f0fbbacked No | 76c | 5,471$4,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.51 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 2c | 4,500$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacea…8b97backed Yes | 21c | 4,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 10c | 4,000$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…490abacked Yes | 1c | 3,617$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 3,608$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 18c | 3,500$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2f…f3f6backed Yes | 3c | 3,477$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf097…b974backed No | 75c | 3,471$2,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 20c | 3,362$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.6 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 78c | 3,333$2,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.1 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed Yes | 23c | 3,333$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.59 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,273$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…da96backed Yes | 24c | 3,046$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x077e…06d2backed Yes | 21c | 3,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,895$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.65 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 3c | 2,600$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.1 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 26c | 2,411$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.27 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 5c | 2,400$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 17c | 2,200$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 75c | 2,167$1,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.08 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…f03ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,160$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 123 | 28.5%35 W · 88 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb09…c163backed No | 79c | 2,114$1,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 25c | 2,090$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.78 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed Yes | 5c | 1,892$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.2 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 7c | 1,843$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.54 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf807…c5dcbacked Yes | 14c | 1,681$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.05 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5195…b4b8backed Yes | 3c | 1,672$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a1…2974backed Yes | 30c | 1,626$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 12c | 1,601$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f4…98e2backed No | 75c | 1,591$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.59 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4f…a849backed Yes | 7c | 1,560$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.62 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked No | 74c | 1,500$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 27c | 1,486$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.04 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8eb…8473backed Yes | 6c | 1,476$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.29 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +196.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Yes | 15c | 1,467$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…aa8dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,400$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…a618backed No | 78c | 1,350$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 19c | 1,337$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.04 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,330$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.3 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed Yes | 23c | 1,323$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.39 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc19a…412abacked Yes | 10c | 1,243$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 5c | 1,126$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 5c | 1,105$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac42…60d1backed Yes | 13c | 1,100$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 11c | 1,100$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe879…6d22backed Yes | 11c | 1,070$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.3 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…15e9backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b72…beddbacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…7a45backed No | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ff…3c75backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…368abacked No | 76c | 1,000$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -11.4wins | -0.20per pick | 67cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7377…2524backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 28c | 999.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…e6f2backed Yes | 3c | 945$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…7830backed Yes | 3c | 945$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…6759backed Yes | 3c | 933$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa036…1f43backed Yes | 3c | 932$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…40c5backed Yes | 3c | 931$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 74c | 900$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 107 | 37.4%40 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d6…e8f4backed Yes | 4c | 889$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a9…c5e8backed Yes | 4c | 889$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be1…4d3fbacked Yes | 5c | 886$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1785…ddf3backed Yes | 4c | 880$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda51…dfb0backed Yes | 5c | 855$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd068…b3e3backed Yes | 5c | 855$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b58…18adbacked Yes | 5c | 853$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba1…8094backed Yes | 5c | 851$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ec…21ffbacked Yes | 5c | 851$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2684…0260backed Yes | 5c | 850$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5423…3cc7backed Yes | 5c | 850$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8160…5cf4backed Yes | 5c | 845$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4aa…5773backed Yes | 5c | 845$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e93…198cbacked Yes | 5c | 835$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?this page
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?No won
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No won
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No won
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.