Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe12f3636e12dd4d423a4dcaafec802726a6d853980ec23f61798b0c656fb46fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $157,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $148,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d16…e798backed Yes | 4c | 34,493$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +405.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0e…6ebfbacked Yes | 4c | 6,446$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.02 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 8c | 4,752$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.54 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 4c | 4,582$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.88 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 4,244$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.48 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,965$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 14c | 3,958$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.87 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 3,917$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,319$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.19 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…7d90backed Yes | 6c | 2,085$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 11c | 1,666$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.23 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…5981backed Yes | 3c | 1,499$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 37cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 2c | 1,143$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…47cebacked Yes | 10c | 1,100$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 4c | 1,087$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,050$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.5 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,031$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 3c | 981.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 4c | 895.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 846$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 8c | 705.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ef…3e53backed Yes | 6c | 643.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 9c | 631.38$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 3c | 510.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d8…b773backed Yes | 3c | 509.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…0534backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 2c | 493.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…cf43backed Yes | 2c | 490.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 5c | 477.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc510…bb00backed Yes | 5c | 413.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 4c | 392.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 5c | 273$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 87 | 21.8%19 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 6c | 263.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…ab08backed Yes | 6c | 240$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46c8…0f7abacked Yes | 7c | 227.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 5c | 210$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…9feabacked Yes | 14c | 208.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f75…8775backed Yes | 7c | 201.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 6cpaid | +706.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…8d97backed Yes | 8c | 168.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…e527backed Yes | 9c | 120$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…78ddbacked Yes | 16c | 67.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 76c | 31.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?this page
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?No won
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No won
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No won
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.