Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5efa976ebe94080bbda7e45605333ff8f30156cc91604d66c41eb52fd3e25f3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,533,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,445,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,533,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 898 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 8c | 461,289$35,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,998.34 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cb…d447backed Yes | 11c | 367,166$39,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,080.18 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 9c | 282,259$25,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,804.62 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 8c | 224,751$16,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,984.3 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 7c | 204,040$13,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,452.67 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 13c | 183,255$23,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,335.04 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 10c | 134,259$13,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,976.61 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 5c | 122,221$6,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,499.94 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711b…bcecbacked Yes | 19c | 120,815$22,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,636 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…a549backed Yes | 6c | 120,474$7,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,527.68 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes | 5c | 119,297$6,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,210.83 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 10c | 99,671$9,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,643.14 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 12c | 97,910$12,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,146.64 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 12c | 83,937$10,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,278.93 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 17c | 76,858$13,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,275.85 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 8c | 74,359$5,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,776.08 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 8c | 74,183$5,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,747.42 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked Yes | 12c | 67,097$8,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,243.83 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 7c | 56,166$4,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,081.7 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 11c | 56,127$6,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,184.71 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 5c | 55,798$2,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,867.48 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 11c | 55,253$6,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,073.56 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 17c | 54,824$9,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,185.66 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 7c | 53,974$4,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,029.72 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 9c | 51,665$4,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,903.62 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 8c | 47,816$3,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,770.26 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 12c | 45,686$5,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,501.88 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9e…ae15backed Yes | 15c | 45,680$6,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,715.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b5…9386backed Yes | 4c | 42,797$1,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,827.56 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 11c | 41,973$4,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,412.32 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 2c | 40,335$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.26 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 14c | 40,182$5,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,557.92 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 14c | 36,496$5,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,032.58 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 14c | 35,330$4,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,787.43 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 12c | 34,297$4,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,137.36 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…28dfbacked Yes | 15c | 32,998$4,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,999 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…2b0fbacked Yes | 14c | 31,128$4,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,226.6 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…50c8backed Yes | 10c | 31,015$2,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,993.75 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -5.2wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked Yes | 5c | 30,623$1,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 5c | 29,762$1,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,529.28 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 9c | 29,258$2,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,676.67 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed Yes | 4c | 29,035$1,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118.51 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd109…6fa0backed Yes | 14c | 27,842$3,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,782.25 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f3…d6ddbacked Yes | 5c | 27,700$1,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,371.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 26,455$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.96 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…09f1backed Yes | 11c | 26,000$2,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,838.57 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Yes | 6c | 25,862$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 11c | 25,733$2,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,954.77 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed Yes | 15c | 25,442$3,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,908.84 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Yes | 12c | 25,000$2,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,945 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 13c | 25,000$3,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,276.96 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 9c | 23,456$2,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,109.55 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4def…f8e8backed Yes | 16c | 23,196$3,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,632.36 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 11c | 23,179$2,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,620.68 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacea…8b97backed Yes | 13c | 22,869$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,939.86 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 11c | 22,448$2,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,528.03 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 4c | 22,364$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.89 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…9402backed Yes | 7c | 22,301$1,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,601.96 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes | 5c | 20,889$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.32 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 15c | 20,461$3,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,012.09 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 19c | 20,000$3,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,750.33 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 9c | 20,000$1,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,726.93 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…946dbacked Yes | 5c | 20,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes | 15c | 20,000$2,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,949.99 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 7c | 19,901$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.94 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 8c | 19,797$1,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,558.26 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 17c | 19,182$3,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,178.27 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Yes | 12c | 19,178$2,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,261.23 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc5…9c30backed Yes | 5c | 19,010$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28c3…da06backed Yes | 16c | 18,984$2,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,994.53 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 6c | 18,299$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.85 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 5c | 17,371$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.61 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5144…37c9backed Yes | 3c | 17,309$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 9c | 17,013$1,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460.77 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2222…f221backed Yes | 6c | 16,407$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.86 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…f147backed Yes | 6c | 16,280$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.58 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 13c | 16,025$2,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,095.52 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 15,914$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.97 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 9c | 15,795$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.72 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 17c | 15,551$2,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,601.43 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c6…73a7backed Yes | 5c | 15,500$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 6c | 15,202$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.33 | 154 | 34.4%53 W · 101 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…5d15backed Yes | 18c | 15,000$2,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,742.79 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 9c | 14,966$1,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,332.8 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 19c | 14,931$2,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,776.05 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 11c | 13,161$1,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389.29 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 11c | 13,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,469.51 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461c…20abbacked Yes | 11c | 13,000$1,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,453 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 10c | 12,970$1,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,326.59 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +16.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked Yes | 18c | 12,887$2,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,379.13 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 7c | 12,632$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked Yes | 9c | 12,618$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.76 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc881…b071backed Yes | 15c | 12,174$1,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,847.45 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…8ffdbacked Yes | 5c | 12,000$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 11c | 11,841$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,266.85 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd599…bf55backed Yes | 3c | 11,813$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 22c | 11,700$2,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,611.57 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +11.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 17c | 11,431$1,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,905.7 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 18c | 10,830$1,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,929.03 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 5c | 10,778$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.88 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?this page
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?No won
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No won
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No won
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.