Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d1ee0c046938319f654f99c6aca2380c1f6d88a65887dd360fda3d0509eddb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,700,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,562,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,700,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 7c | 559,677$36,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,882.67 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 3c | 227,309$5,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,828.3 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 0c | 210,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 4c | 144,982$5,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,434.3 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 6c | 109,095$6,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,840.55 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cb…d447backed Yes | 4c | 64,331$2,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,669.46 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 4c | 49,330$1,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,798.61 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 5c | 38,941$1,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,788.93 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 7c | 35,000$2,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,505 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 5c | 31,244$1,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590.84 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 8c | 29,557$2,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,453.1 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes | 4c | 25,049$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.95 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 3c | 22,087$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.29 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed Yes | 2c | 21,149$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.76 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 5c | 20,631$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.01 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 2c | 20,399$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.81 | 187 | 38%71 W · 116 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 5c | 17,000$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 5c | 15,353$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.49 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 3c | 15,303$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.12 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Yes | 8c | 13,716$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.2 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2222…f221backed Yes | 3c | 13,336$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.16 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 5c | 12,509$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.83 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 8c | 11,323$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.02 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 4c | 9,100$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.37 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 4c | 8,615$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.36 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 8,300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.1 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 4c | 8,283$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 7,639$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.62 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 5c | 7,341$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.77 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe74b…ee88backed Yes | 3c | 7,219$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.97 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +11.9wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 7,120$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.62 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 6,785$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 3c | 6,714$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.13 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 6,691$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.33 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…3348backed Yes | 13c | 6,240$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 2c | 6,000$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 13c | 5,468$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.77 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +11.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 5,214$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.65 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Yes | 5c | 5,160$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.08 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 7c | 4,728$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.47 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 3c | 4,642$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.2 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 4,557$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.94 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 3c | 4,183$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.15 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked Yes | 11c | 4,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 1c | 3,979$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 5c | 3,781$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.09 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 6c | 3,523$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.75 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 5c | 3,406$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.39 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 4c | 3,374$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.93 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…9402backed Yes | 1c | 3,050$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…1083backed Yes | 7c | 3,000$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,896$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.91 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Yes | 3c | 2,855$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.65 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 6c | 2,724$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.23 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 5c | 2,377$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.37 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,254$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc6…7306backed Yes | 2c | 2,202$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 2c | 1,994$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 5c | 1,947$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.29 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6660…172bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,942$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd61a…c7f1backed Yes | 5c | 1,892$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.76 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 5c | 1,843$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,720$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1db…abd4backed Yes | 6c | 1,704$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed Yes | 1c | 1,629$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 130 | 22.3%29 W · 101 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5694…501cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,600$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…92a7backed Yes | 4c | 1,530$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.21 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dc…6bbabacked Yes | 3c | 1,519$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 3c | 1,502$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 7c | 1,500$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.12 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 12c | 1,428$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.14 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 2c | 1,414$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +132.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x413b…b488backed Yes | 7c | 1,395$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa0…2414backed Yes | 7c | 1,389$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 5c | 1,376$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.51 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 4c | 1,366$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…8aabbacked Yes | 7c | 1,297$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.95 | 91 | 31.9%29 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca2…03cfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,280$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…3eb1backed Yes | 2c | 1,239$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 6c | 1,134$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes | 5c | 1,134$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eab…d4bfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,077$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24ea…8665backed Yes | 2c | 1,072$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 6c | 1,007$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 242 | 24.4%59 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…96cfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45fe…4c1abacked Yes | 2c | 903.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed Yes | 2c | 857.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…0ca3backed Yes | 1c | 833$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…051ebacked Yes | 6c | 829.39$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 750$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Yes | 2c | 715.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed Yes | 2c | 713.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac7…524abacked Yes | 11c | 707.19$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.53 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes | 7c | 700$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?this page
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?No won
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No won
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No won
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.