Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e564dbdf5c9ebdf0860d1970592a269a0ede28570d66a9ea2c50b6f191298d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $156,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $167,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d16…e798backed Yes | 4c | 29,124$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +405.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 7c | 15,524$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.46 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,846$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 3c | 3,652$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.29 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,258$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.17 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,208$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,513$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,500$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 5c | 2,381$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.7 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…47cebacked Yes | 7c | 2,100$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 7c | 1,410$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.69 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…5475backed Yes | 6c | 1,215$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 4c | 1,168$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe324…c5a6backed Yes | 3c | 1,090$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 4c | 836.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…5948backed Yes | 3c | 689.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +405.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 6c | 584.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -72%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 3c | 557.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 555$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 459$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 6c | 444$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 3c | 420$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 10c | 155.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?this page
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No won
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No won
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No won
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.