TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe0f3…9fea

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
47
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Tweets, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 52 out of 100; worst Lol at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weatherlast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT3540%14 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on August 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+25%+$4
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+29%+$4.5
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on August 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+25%+$20
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$79.5
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.97
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.45
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$112
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$9
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.6
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.37
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.96
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$17.19
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.5
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$21.5
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.5
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$11
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$6.2
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on May 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+26.9%+$5.3
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on May 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.5
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$12.74
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+16.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on April 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$62.7
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on April 17?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.02
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.41
LoL: BNK FEARX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed BNK FEARX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+90.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+90.8%+$71.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs Division One (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Playoffsbacked Division One · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.