Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6a9acdb11b014c22ad7323961e48f25df30c350d21230777633b312ace2f5d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 13c | 562.21$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.16 | 899 | 29%261 W · 638 L | -22.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 14c | 377.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 322.15$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.92 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 63c | 191.26$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.63 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 22c | 163.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 71c | 154.24$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.24 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 77c | 129.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 412 | 51.7%213 W · 199 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f0b6backed Yes | 39c | 126.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.34 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 52c | 106.51$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 3,411 | 31.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L | -37.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 104.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x46bc…4894backed No | 65c | 86.46$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…eadfbacked Yes | 59c | 84.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 35c | 79.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 15c | 71.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 31c | 69.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 66c | 68.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 73c | 66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 34c | 53.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 47c | 53.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 65c | 52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 620 | 44%273 W · 347 L | +25.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x396b…1759backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,028 | 31.3%949 W · 2,079 L | +40.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 1,300 | 54.2%704 W · 596 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 47.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 41c | 44.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 70c | 43.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…1e24backed Yes | 70c | 41.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 47c | 41.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 1,087 | 51.9%564 W · 523 L | +75.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 34.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 546 | 58.8%321 W · 225 L | +47.2wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,275 | 47.6%607 W · 668 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…4eeebacked Yes | 67c | 29.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7d…06e3backed No | 64c | 29.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18eb…c5fbbacked Yes | 70c | 27.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.8wins | +0.30per pick | 51cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 41c | 26.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…9feabacked Yes | 49c | 24.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 65c | 24.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 23.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 64c | 21.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed No | 70c | 18.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked No | 75c | 15.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 77c | 14.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 423 | 53%224 W · 199 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.