Commodities · resolved market
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabb584b2a953694bc2d0576c17240267c735514eb1664515f428aef618bfe9d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 61c | 1,494$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.52 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Down | 9c | 933.43$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.72 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004f…e87cbacked Down | 2c | 827.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Down | 32c | 825$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.37 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…d253backed Down | 12c | 303.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…9feabacked Down | 45c | 237.02$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Up | 52c | 231.28$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.89 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…74a0backed Down | 44c | 217.54$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2858…119dbacked Down | 41c | 210.39$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e45…9e45backed Down | 37c | 200$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…f016backed Up | 53c | 175$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80c7…0325backed Down | 14c | 133.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 37c | 132$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked Down | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -10.8wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5e63…134fbacked Down | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.5wins | -0.32per pick | 47cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Down | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +289%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x588f…3eabbacked Down | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b6…49b2backed Down | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db2…d818backed Down | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Down | 49c | 98.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69d0…1a0dbacked Up | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e31…4716backed Up | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +144.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Up | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…7adabacked Down | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…63d3backed Up | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f19…bf1ebacked Down | 50c | 38.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Down | 49c | 29.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.