Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba0e37471202f7232a7544fc1c70e9e88ebc1484fc17e74c388fe809735a7d0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 399.39$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.12 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 26c | 383$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.29 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 8c | 369.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 338.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 32c | 333.81$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.97 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438c…986bbacked Yes | 24c | 225.39$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 179.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 33c | 151.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 10c | 133.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 108.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6255…2718backed Yes | 19c | 102.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…6565backed Yes | 17c | 102.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 34c | 101.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…9feabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…2550backed Yes | 14c | 94.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 89.25$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 13c | 83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 75.58$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 75c | 71.13$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c12…b8d3backed Yes | 19c | 68.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…ce5abacked Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 69c | 62.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 66c | 60.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 59.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 18c | 55.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 49.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 80c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 68c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 74c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 80c | 34.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x313a…3696backed Yes | 31c | 32.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf444…8d4abacked No | 70c | 23.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 19.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 71c | 19.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 17.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…52e4backed No | 75c | 16.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 75c | 15.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on July 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or higher on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.