Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00c30d44d2dad3657dad9a8ebd8c659207a0f5188b844bb771d9f4178ad327be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 43c | 754.98$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.47 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 20c | 563.06$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.38 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed Yes | 73c | 559.76$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.76 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 79c | 505.29$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.29 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438c…986bbacked Yes | 28c | 499.93$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.95 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 49c | 451.81$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 52c | 425.91$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.44 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 66c | 387.86$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.56 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 33c | 367.17$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.13 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579f…3803backed Yes | 69c | 313.09$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.39 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 14c | 295.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 79c | 286.48$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 18c | 266$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 65c | 245.53$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.79 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…f22cbacked Yes | 41c | 242.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.7 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 80c | 228.38$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 215.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 42c | 213$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.54 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 27c | 199.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.99 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 185.72$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.25 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 63c | 176.58$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.02 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 66c | 146.22$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 31c | 137.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 35c | 137.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 40c | 134.52$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.47 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 72c | 132$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 76c | 131.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…1dd9backed No | 10c | 130.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 36c | 128.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 128$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 122.05$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.58 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 74c | 119.1$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 13c | 117.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 52c | 114.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 58c | 114.42$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 28c | 111.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 58c | 105.33$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.82 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 29c | 103.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.61 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…64e5backed Yes | 77c | 100.65$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4964…4828backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 97.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x66d5…de1abacked Yes | 78c | 95$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 20c | 91.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 33c | 83.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a9…ad8bbacked No | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 19c | 76.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 75.61$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 65c | 72.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 71$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 48c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 64.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 41c | 62.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 67c | 60.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked No | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…9373backed No | 65c | 59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 72c | 55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 78c | 53.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 26c | 49.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 59c | 46.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 57c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 41.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 73c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…d8cebacked No | 72c | 38.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 35.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Yes | 78c | 33.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 71c | 29.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 41c | 27.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 38c | 27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 74c | 26.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 68c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 71c | 23.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 72c | 19.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 80c | 16.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 73c | 15.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed No | 74c | 13.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or higher on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.