Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf945200845d130ee6f2f643ed52400a7cd8ec731ac8200a671440732a48cd749
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 177 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2139…4ca8backed Yes | 49c | 3,000$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 51c | 2,157$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.26 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86f6…ad6dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,034$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 1c | 1,930$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 41c | 1,877$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110.62 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes | 37c | 1,495$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.86 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 5c | 1,400$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.07 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 47c | 1,245$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.96 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 35c | 1,209$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.85 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 48c | 1,039$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 56c | 1,035$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.03 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 1,027$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.16 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 26c | 1,003$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.15 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 54c | 986.78$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.84 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 34c | 812.53$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.67 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 49c | 812.49$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.74 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 587.81$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.8 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 51c | 563.13$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.47 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 35c | 434.5$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.1 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 41c | 423.35$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.74 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 54c | 415.8$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.84 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 49c | 409.61$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.71 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 380$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.16 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 23c | 344.88$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 313.73$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.96 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 54c | 299.49$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.49 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 55c | 282.81$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.66 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 273.72$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.71 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3c43backed Yes | 30c | 251.18$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 235.75$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.73 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 34c | 235$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.1 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 41c | 230$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 70c | 223.41$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.14 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 40c | 218.36$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.85 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 47c | 207.93$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 44c | 205.76$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.53 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5184…1363backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 51c | 200$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.23 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…9feabacked Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 64c | 195.64$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.98 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 193$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed No | 52c | 191.43$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.15 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 58c | 180$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 179.82$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.44 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8d…f736backed Yes | 48c | 177.32$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 58c | 163.11$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked No | 53c | 156.77$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.35 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 50c | 154.63$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.72 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 151$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.19 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 60c | 148.75$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.96 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 146.91$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.26 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 35c | 144.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.04 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 51c | 137.96$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.13 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ac…bc4fbacked No | 45c | 131.84$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 41c | 131.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 49c | 129.54$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 48c | 125.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 60c | 120$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 116.77$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 55c | 115.37$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 112.07$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 109.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 30c | 103.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes | 45c | 102.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa011…bfaabacked Yes | 79c | 101.36$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 51c | 98.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04de…220ebacked Yes | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 52c | 97.48$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 41c | 96.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 59c | 95.43$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 52c | 94.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed No | 46c | 91.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 71c | 85.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a3…58f2backed Yes | 52c | 85.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 84.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 54c | 82.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 50c | 82.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 30c | 82.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 35c | 80.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 50c | 78.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 52c | 75.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 66c | 73.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 39c | 73.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 38c | 71.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.57 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d06…c734backed Yes | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 37c | 69.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 52c | 69.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 74c | 68.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 66.87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 52c | 65.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 56c | 63.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325b…f1eebacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.