Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x138c6eda76e1c102e77777a8c0213e954c5e1fbcc4fc03552c3d2fd0fe246972
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 2,458$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 23c | 1,293$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,274$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.03 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4ca8backed Yes | 14c | 1,163$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.25 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 5c | 1,021$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.32 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 10c | 978.26$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.84 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 808.02$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 11c | 668.37$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.85 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 75c | 540.39$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.05 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 5c | 533.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 6c | 430.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 363.53$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.77 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 333$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 17c | 287.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 19c | 280.28$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 15c | 277.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 77c | 260.07$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.07 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 21c | 242.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 21c | 232$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 17c | 228.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 8c | 223$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 22c | 205.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 76c | 199.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 30c | 167.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 69c | 161.32$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 8c | 158.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes | 20c | 157.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 21c | 156.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 150$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb252…add8backed No | 75c | 133.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 19c | 127.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 21c | 124.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 123.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 14c | 120.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 28c | 120.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 18c | 119.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…c652backed Yes | 10c | 114.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 22c | 113$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c28…66b0backed No | 80c | 110$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 103$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 17c | 97.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 79c | 95.53$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 89.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 88.58$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 20c | 75.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…8487backed No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 17c | 69.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa430…7105backed No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 19c | 63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…c1e6backed No | 80c | 62.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 78c | 57.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8694…7dafbacked No | 77c | 55.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 52.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab1…ca7abacked Yes | 20c | 52.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 78c | 51.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…89e6backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…51bbbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc68a…8b2ebacked No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 37.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c4…2181backed No | 67c | 31.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48db…3939backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…427cbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 24.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 77c | 20.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 77c | 19.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 74c | 14.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 74c | 14.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x562e…8529backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0d…60bbbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.