Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb856495abc0e9aa877d0c1ef00926af0143126a74ac40448e9eb8db2a3bc424
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdeef…a391backed No | 0c | 3,371$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked No | 65c | 2,000$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.28 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x657b…2094backed Yes | 33c | 1,347$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 47c | 1,284$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.43 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 1,047$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.01 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a5…0e36backed No | 77c | 804.3$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.39 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 33c | 620.79$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.51 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 533.27$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.43 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 54c | 517.63$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.28 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 33c | 407.02$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.28 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 395.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 33c | 393.36$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.36 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 382.06$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 35c | 375.2$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.23 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 43c | 356.22$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.48 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 345.96$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 32c | 334.26$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.09 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 67c | 315.46$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.96 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 69c | 304.55$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.81 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 300.42$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.54 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 283.86$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.87 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 63c | 279.94$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.57 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 256$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.73 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x593a…b9f4backed Yes | 42c | 240.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.59 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 27c | 240$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.2 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 22c | 239.56$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.22 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 239.19$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.51 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 234.71$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.05 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 35c | 233.51$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.47 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 46c | 224.12$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.08 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 27c | 222.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.26 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 41c | 210.47$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.53 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 208.16$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.7 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes | 37c | 200.32$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.92 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.87 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes | 28c | 177.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.12 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 31c | 172.23$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.52 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 27c | 167.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed Yes | 27c | 162.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.84 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 153.08$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.73 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…9feabacked Yes | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 20c | 147.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.88 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 10c | 136.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 26c | 133.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.13 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 60c | 124.35$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.05 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 32c | 123.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.86 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 74c | 121.12$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 29c | 114.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.68 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 30c | 111.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.33 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed Yes | 33c | 106.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.76 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a2…07a4backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 70c | 99.16$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.41 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 32c | 91.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 24c | 89.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.77 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 70c | 87.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 24c | 86.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.04 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 35c | 85.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 59c | 85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 37c | 84.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 82.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 30c | 81.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 39c | 79.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd419…fb71backed Yes | 43c | 78.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 33c | 73.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 35c | 72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 69c | 71.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…1f34backed Yes | 26c | 70.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 24c | 70.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 69.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 40c | 69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 20c | 66.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.34 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 66.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 47c | 65.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 70c | 63.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 26c | 62.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 24c | 62.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 33c | 61.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 29c | 60.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b1…b468backed No | 75c | 59.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e9…8070backed Yes | 22c | 59.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 58.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 27c | 56.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 37c | 56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 20c | 55.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 25c | 52.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 63c | 51.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 59c | 51.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 22c | 51.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e95…ec2cbacked Yes | 28c | 51.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 32c | 50.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x192d…7672backed Yes | 32c | 50.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.