Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09e1e10495f1dbb1948b63ad02a4af9f59a0401dde53ec713e5105d75eefe748
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 39c | 618.87$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.09 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 33c | 531.08$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 42c | 498.27$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 481.39$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 46c | 412.76$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.84 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 45c | 411$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.61 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 30c | 383.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.52 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 333.03$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.37 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 44c | 283.8$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.93 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…acf6backed No | 54c | 281.58$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.31 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa50b…12c4backed No | 45c | 262.2$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.75 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 51c | 249.97$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.49 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 43c | 247.65$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.19 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 235$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.71 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 231.93$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 227.1$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.69 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9316…dc6bbacked Yes | 64c | 216.43$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3004…3df7backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.21 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 42c | 200$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.13 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 43c | 189.16$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 49c | 186.56$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.96 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 186.54$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 38c | 177.41$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.17 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 56c | 177.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed Yes | 36c | 170$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.58 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…0939backed Yes | 15c | 158.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 155.91$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf2…6599backed Yes | 39c | 152.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…cd73backed Yes | 60c | 152.58$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 42c | 150.44$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 149.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 51c | 147.09$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.72 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 34c | 146.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 39c | 143.73$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.96 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 37c | 143.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 142.98$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf08…d5a4backed Yes | 35c | 141.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 137$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.19 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 37c | 135.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 58c | 135$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 37c | 134.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 38c | 133.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 77c | 132.74$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.89 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 29c | 132.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 36c | 129.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 114.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 111$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed No | 54c | 106.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b9…47b6backed No | 52c | 101.28$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 100.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.18 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed No | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed No | 49c | 99.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 36c | 97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 68c | 96.75$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.97 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b01…a95cbacked Yes | 24c | 96.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 67c | 94.71$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 60c | 88.25$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7f…cc08backed Yes | 60c | 83.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 36c | 82.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 54c | 70.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 39c | 69.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 66.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…7f92backed No | 58c | 65.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 44c | 65.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 59c | 65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 73c | 62.79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 45c | 62.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 65c | 56.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 46c | 55.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 36c | 54.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 49c | 54.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 30c | 52.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 44c | 51.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 50c | 51.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 57c | 50.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 59c | 50.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 69c | 50.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…9feabacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 48.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 42c | 48.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4d49…52a1backed Yes | 23c | 48.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 45c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed No | 46c | 43.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 39c | 43.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 40.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 35c | 40.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 38c | 40.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.