Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x715ee73ffee65801adb9f51098cf61a14fb4262ae2b20eeb1d68528bdde59c41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa50b…12c4backed No | 4c | 1,752$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf80…7872backed No | 3c | 1,096$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 764.63$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.71 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 40c | 618.55$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.53 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes | 62c | 580.09$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.26 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 54c | 532.97$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.28 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 74c | 452.35$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.41 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7f…cc08backed Yes | 51c | 394.6$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 318.67$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 298.84$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.86 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 257.1$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.12 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 19c | 235.97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.43 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 64c | 235.06$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.53 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 32c | 224.95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.19 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 16c | 218$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.12 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 31c | 214.12$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.01 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 35c | 213.63$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.57 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 208$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 195.21$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 60c | 185$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 14c | 181.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 165$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 13c | 155.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 70c | 153.45$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.54 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf08…d5a4backed Yes | 40c | 143.68$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.22 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 47c | 135$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.55 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 35c | 126.66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.62 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 43c | 121.03$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.43 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 52c | 115.79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 60c | 115.49$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.29 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 16c | 109.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.36 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 39c | 108.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 17c | 105.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.03 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 47c | 105.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 12c | 102.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 101.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 15c | 99.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.37 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 61c | 96.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 35c | 84.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.64 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 80.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 69c | 78.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 17c | 77.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda89…6215backed Yes | 20c | 76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 34c | 75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 73c | 74.53$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 48c | 74.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…52adbacked Yes | 42c | 74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 68.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 77c | 66.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 66.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 17c | 60.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 60.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 59.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 24c | 59.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 59c | 57.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 52c | 57.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 53c | 57.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 30c | 56.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 19c | 56.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.62 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 19c | 54.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 45c | 52.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 29c | 51.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 36c | 50.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 47c | 50.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 72c | 46.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 30c | 46.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…acf6backed Yes | 28c | 44.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 39c | 43.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37f…28bebacked Yes | 32c | 42.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 26c | 42.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 68c | 41.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 73c | 40.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eac…df9cbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 43c | 39.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked No | 60c | 37.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 55c | 37.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 35c | 37.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 68c | 36.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 40c | 36.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…b4dabacked No | 65c | 35.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 33c | 35.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 34c | 35.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 59c | 34.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5750…955abacked No | 60c | 33.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 70c | 33.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 32.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.