TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,675
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,700

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,675 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd661…2750backed Yes20c1,273$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.2788028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe25c…7908backed No77c1,130$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.1422857.5%131 W · 97 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked Yes21c770.21$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.1351733.3%172 W · 345 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes12c752.52$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.527,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x4de1…18a2backed Yes16c668.91$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10543515.2%66 W · 369 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes10c600$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3227129.2%79 W · 192 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No78c371.04$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.373,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No76c350.29$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.773,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes19c327.1$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.345540%182 W · 273 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes34c307.29$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.3657545%259 W · 316 L+26.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes9c298.72$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.638,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d59…fefebacked No73c285.94$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.4666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed Yes7c229.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.261820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes14c224.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes14c213.01$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9123540.9%96 W · 139 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2141033.7%138 W · 272 L+20.9wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes16c197.53$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No77c193.54$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.241,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes10c164.49$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.084,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes11c159.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.95326.4%14 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+31.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9006…9fb8backed Yes20c157.48$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.527037.4%101 W · 169 L+12.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed29…3024backed Yes16c154.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.524139.8%96 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed Yes25c149.79$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3764460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes15c136.22$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.991,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked Yes10c136.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7131219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes8c130$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes11c128.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.697,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e16…27c0backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1029748.5%144 W · 153 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d14…c13abacked Yes13c123.63$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1611222.3%25 W · 87 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e4f…b7d3backed Yes16c110.35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.053141.9%13 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No75c108.71$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.231,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x96e6…fecebacked Yes34c102.69$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3526142.1%110 W · 151 L+15.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes29c101.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3016641%68 W · 98 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f3…52d8backed No77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2319071.6%136 W · 54 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes18c97.25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.412,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No79c95.26$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.64,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes17c92.21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6810547.6%50 W · 55 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d1f…e428backed Yes16c92.12$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.49931.3%31 W · 68 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes19c91.18$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4111515.7%18 W · 97 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes27c90.13$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.191,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes14c85.85$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.862,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No70c83.01$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.516,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No77c80.3$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.12,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd372…04bebacked Yes23c76$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7812052.5%63 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes15c73.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed No80c71.32$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3282268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x6780…41ccbacked Yes34c70.85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1627051.1%138 W · 132 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x34d5…a977backed Yes16c69.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1123030.9%71 W · 159 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed Yes22c66.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8541051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x784a…06c3backed No78c64.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.134050.6%172 W · 168 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x167e…ee43backed Yes20c62.84$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.73863.2%24 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3272…3845backed Yes30c61.08$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0213242.4%56 W · 76 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab38…acf6backed Yes29c60.47$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.695040%20 W · 30 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No76c60.43$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.432,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed Yes28c58.19$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2553951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed Yes28c54.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1576936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa50b…12c4backed Yes27c53.51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.645238.5%20 W · 32 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes28c53.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1539346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes27c51.03$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.981,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaafb…f2cdbacked Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.62114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-15.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9729…038abacked Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.59037.8%34 W · 56 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd456…8a8bbacked No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.874542.2%19 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb311…eadfbacked Yes34c49.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.993545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No79c48.13$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0180957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No74c47.58$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No78c44.98$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.681,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3be5…bc8bbacked No75c39.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.85570.9%39 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ec6…b459backed No67c39.14$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0438146.5%177 W · 204 L+19.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1cc…6171backed Yes29c37.74$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1137942.5%161 W · 218 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No78c32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.044,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked No65c29.2$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2762555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7615…308abacked No75c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.218441.3%76 W · 108 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No79c23.46$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.032,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4478…7f8abacked No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.84463.6%28 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x084c…589ebacked No75c19.9$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.032133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf440…7ab4backed No68c16.73$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.35966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No70c14.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.564960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ec4…cb91backed No76c14.87$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.577170.4%50 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15b7…4cdebacked No78c14.12$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.158661.6%53 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.