Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4c7a8cc9f593c327a27e261779ca0aa56613f30bd1a165570a9a933bb19e8b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 32c | 1,539$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.6 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…bc70backed Yes | 36c | 1,219$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.96 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 7c | 400.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 69c | 362$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.29 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 70c | 360.13$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.55 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed No | 67c | 342$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.26 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 285.89$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 39c | 196$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.62 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 41c | 196$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.36 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 195$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.72 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 63c | 193$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.59 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 47c | 191$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.77 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x416a…eb38backed Yes | 9c | 184.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 7c | 165$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 45c | 151.11$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 63c | 150$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 11c | 129.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 63c | 129.01$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 35c | 128.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.4 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed Yes | 48c | 128$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…9feabacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 40c | 87.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 81.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 74.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 63c | 62.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…c0a7backed No | 68c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 41c | 54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 39c | 52.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x027d…db21backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 45.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 69c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 46c | 34.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed Yes | 32c | 31.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…d85bbacked Yes | 65c | 31.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 41c | 31.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 45c | 24.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 68c | 20.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6104…f040backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 26?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 26?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 26?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.