Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58a8a5cd0a0a52351c412f94dbd7fdae62417f6a81460f2adeed7f37d8f3a3e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 9c | 1,094$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.42 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 15c | 803.56$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.57 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed No | 10c | 597.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 53c | 480.31$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.31 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e4…013dbacked Yes | 55c | 465.46$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.57 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 30c | 360.13$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.69 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 31c | 303.64$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.84 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0437…30f4backed Yes | 53c | 293.27$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.84 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 289.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 36c | 280.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.21 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 238.01$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 46c | 215.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 29c | 200$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.64 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 41c | 195$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.45 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…bc70backed No | 8c | 187.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 34c | 185.15$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.2 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 37c | 159$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.17 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked No | 7c | 151.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 64c | 128.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 37c | 126.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.81 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…a539backed Yes | 35c | 114.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.56 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 19c | 105.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed Yes | 36c | 105.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.36 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 10c | 104.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…44bcbacked Yes | 29c | 88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 33c | 87.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.29 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa57c…bf42backed Yes | 30c | 78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.89 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 59c | 56.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 67c | 55.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 31c | 54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 31c | 52.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbccf…95e1backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…c495backed No | 71c | 46.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fd…15a0backed No | 67c | 40.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed Yes | 35c | 34.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f2…ef25backed No | 67c | 30.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 47c | 24.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 26?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 26?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 26?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.