Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f6a3424ee7a08ccde9d6a896409ef79a481619cf361c38e61f7c69844c08a8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 69c | 1,615$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.3 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 14c | 409.61$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.91 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…e42abacked Yes | 65c | 375.04$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.52 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…dbb3backed No | 32c | 349.45$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.71 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…76b5backed Yes | 75c | 304.16$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.86 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 6c | 201.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 28c | 191.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8f…7831backed No | 46c | 114.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 13c | 102.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.47 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf5…d359backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f8…badabacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 73c | 94.34$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.04 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…d0b1backed No | 17c | 93.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 91.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 25c | 79.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.42 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 53c | 55.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…9feabacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d4…26a1backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 44c | 48.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafa6…a78bbacked Yes | 41c | 35.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 62c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0091…3282backed No | 59c | 34.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 35c | 30.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 78c | 19.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 8?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 8?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 8?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 8?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.