Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4132b8fe6689bb0c7f3765f544e25d11645bda8880bd4877c9f312a1e44f5b24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 74c | 999.99$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 28c | 840.22$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed Yes | 54c | 752.38$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.55 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 12c | 686.98$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.44 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 20c | 620.8$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 536.71$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.97 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 26c | 499.96$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.97 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked No | 24c | 468.07$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.9 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ea…e40dbacked Yes | 26c | 467.93$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.16 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 20c | 399.48$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.21 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 27c | 372.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.15 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 60c | 298.26$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.16 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 66c | 279.45$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 36c | 238.37$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.84 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 49c | 217.77$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.8 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 62c | 209.89$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.69 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 17c | 187.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 7c | 179.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 49c | 162.36$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.1 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…b7d3backed Yes | 62c | 153.87$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 31c | 153.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.75 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 38c | 133.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.82 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 33c | 130$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.46 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 78c | 128.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 26c | 123.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1648…c24bbacked Yes | 26c | 120.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.96 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 73c | 105.83$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked Yes | 32c | 104.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.22 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 103.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.69 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked No | 61c | 102$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked Yes | 30c | 101.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d9…e3e6backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4265…3741backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +352%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 32c | 99.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.73 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 55c | 97.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 47c | 96.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 52c | 95.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 57c | 93.13$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 36c | 91.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.37 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 33c | 81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x393e…b2f0backed No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 49c | 78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 74.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8431…6291backed Yes | 77c | 73.81$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75a1…6afbbacked Yes | 75c | 71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 50c | 70.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 25c | 69.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 61c | 67.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked No | 31c | 66.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed No | 24c | 63.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 49c | 61.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…74efbacked Yes | 58c | 60.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…ff17backed Yes | 58c | 59.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 67c | 59.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 69c | 57.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 55.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 22c | 50.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb5…d2c8backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d8…dfebbacked Yes | 75c | 48.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 58c | 47.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…7421backed No | 28c | 46.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 44.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf5…c655backed No | 31c | 43.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 27c | 40.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714c…9c5fbacked Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…8eeabacked No | 74c | 39.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2876…752fbacked Yes | 70c | 38.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 34.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 34.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed No | 31c | 34.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 70c | 34.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…0fc4backed No | 31c | 32.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 72c | 30.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked No | 42c | 30.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 50c | 30.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…cfcdbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 39c | 29.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 75c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 27.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 74c | 27.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8752…31b6backed Yes | 43c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 38c | 26.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 68c | 26.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed Yes | 73c | 26.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 53c | 22.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.