Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cd731837df2512a7a100b1dc8495fdfe04452ec19b432f3fd7032dfab44c23e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 3c | 913.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 532.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 6c | 430.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da9…13dfbacked Yes | 26c | 378.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 9c | 366.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 78c | 349.96$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.48 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 4c | 321.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 10c | 234.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked No | 23c | 232.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.55 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 8c | 206.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 7c | 196.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 155.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 21c | 148.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 21c | 136.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.85 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed Yes | 72c | 130$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 77c | 129.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 21c | 108.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1648…c24bbacked Yes | 22c | 101.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…4841backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 97.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked Yes | 17c | 93.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 16c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed No | 19c | 79.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.59 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed No | 25c | 65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed Yes | 74c | 65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 27c | 55.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 75c | 51.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae2…f63abacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6889…f2e3backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked No | 22c | 49.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…b7d3backed Yes | 21c | 47.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed No | 66c | 47.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 62c | 45.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 76c | 38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 75c | 36.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed Yes | 78c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2876…752fbacked No | 46c | 29.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf120…19c6backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed Yes | 78c | 19.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed Yes | 77c | 18.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked Yes | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked Yes | 76c | 15.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddb…81eabacked Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 74cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 78c | 13.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed Yes | 78c | 13.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1c…5650backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 80cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.