Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02d546d8e9b3e7d68a02ce471acef7ad0d29502a2b991f9d44ee8c3aedbeab1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 2,465$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 529.74$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.75 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 517$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.58 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 21c | 434.55$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.05 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed Yes | 35c | 403.73$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.44 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3da9…13dfbacked Yes | 40c | 247.5$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 7c | 180$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 33c | 164.27$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 15c | 158.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 64c | 152.15$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…4841backed No | 43c | 150$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed No | 11c | 150$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 143.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1648…c24bbacked Yes | 30c | 139.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 134.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 45c | 130$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22ea…e40dbacked Yes | 36c | 124.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 120.93$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 41c | 120.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 32c | 114.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 24c | 106.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 32c | 94.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 43c | 91.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 46c | 88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…74efbacked Yes | 62c | 81.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d06…c734backed Yes | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 33c | 76.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 36c | 76.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked No | 49c | 75.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 65c | 75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 32c | 73.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x393e…b2f0backed No | 66c | 72.46$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 63.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed No | 30c | 59.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 61c | 57.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 52c | 56.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 38c | 52.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed Yes | 67c | 50.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked Yes | 24c | 50.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 57c | 46.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 30c | 45.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 44c | 44.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf52e…1663backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 40c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 67c | 35.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 55c | 35.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 66c | 35.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 34.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a4…2895backed No | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…ac1ebacked No | 35c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 75c | 32.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 70c | 32.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 55c | 31.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…0fc4backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed8…cad8backed No | 65c | 27.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 56c | 27.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…2f45backed No | 48c | 26.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ff…3abfbacked No | 66c | 24.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed Yes | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 77c | 23.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 68c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…ddc2backed Yes | 45c | 22.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed No | 65c | 22.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 68c | 19.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 66c | 19.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 61c | 19.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 56c | 19.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x503f…9a8fbacked Yes | 78c | 19.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 68c | 17.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8792…4174backed No | 69c | 17.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked Yes | 70c | 14.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.