Tweets · resolved market
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96b01cbc943ad7818e0b749b7ba3dcbb0caa1dea18ad8fd2c4d1d149cf956ceb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8188…0667backed No | 0c | 6,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 2cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb98…0f80backed No | 2c | 5,708$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.64 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…ea78backed No | 1c | 5,146$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27e0…b09bbacked No | 0c | 3,304$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 68 | 8.8%6 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,934$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,597.94 | 361 | 13.3%48 W · 313 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 35c | 1,330$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.62 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed No | 75c | 1,300$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.97 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 52c | 1,069$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.4 | 122 | 32.8%40 W · 82 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 9c | 1,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.89 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…3b29backed Yes | 51c | 950.08$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.6 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked No | 4c | 886.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44fc…fbbcbacked No | 7c | 821.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 47c | 798.45$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.21 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…07febacked Yes | 40c | 628$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 589.75$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.37 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 46c | 537.15$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.15 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…6071backed Yes | 48c | 512.72$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.11 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb8…b468backed Yes | 29c | 488.06$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.58 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2637…26e1backed No | 4c | 446.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…0432backed No | 6c | 445.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 47c | 400.38$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.26 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 49c | 362.13$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.58 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 12c | 327.12$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.49 | 278 | 20.9%58 W · 220 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9e…6693backed No | 48c | 315.72$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.93 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 53c | 313.67$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.6 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 268.22$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.32 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1849…137ebacked Yes | 25c | 257.06$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.36 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…394dbacked Yes | 47c | 204.93$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.82 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76fa…3ff4backed No | 75c | 199.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…cbf6backed Yes | 23c | 182.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 48c | 180$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.04 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…c3e4backed No | 73c | 161.86$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…d961backed Yes | 28c | 150.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.73 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…9feabacked Yes | 52c | 150$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51c…502dbacked No | 72c | 150$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa598…2ff3backed No | 46c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 149.37$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.03 | 264 | 61.7%163 W · 101 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 24c | 147.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.01 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 20c | 139.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.8 | 405 | 19.8%80 W · 325 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…1330backed No | 32c | 135.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 48c | 124.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x814f…aeecbacked Yes | 19c | 117.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.62 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 38c | 116.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.53 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 42c | 113.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed No | 50c | 105.1$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…4a50backed Yes | 41c | 100.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…4d35backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 73c | 96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 145 | 75.9%110 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fe…bdaebacked Yes | 52c | 93.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x159a…2ed1backed No | 75c | 91.69$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x396b…1759backed Yes | 42c | 85.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 82.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.92 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 24c | 71.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 102 | 16.7%17 W · 85 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 29c | 67.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 66c | 66.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 48c | 60.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | -33.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed Yes | 51c | 60.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 65c | 52.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…9c58backed Yes | 51c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…e90dbacked Yes | 26c | 51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +154.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…d677backed No | 49c | 50.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked No | 46c | 50.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…90a2backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…1a36backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed No | 47c | 49.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 114 | 30.7%35 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 21c | 49.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 558 | 8.2%46 W · 512 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…ff2abacked No | 76c | 47.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f7…569fbacked Yes | 24c | 46.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6746…d842backed No | 48c | 45.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…fd31backed No | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed Yes | 53c | 42.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 178 | 24.7%44 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 36c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 57c | 33.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 55c | 32.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c09…cdf1backed Yes | 54c | 31.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ab…8a17backed No | 72c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 52c | 24.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes | 54c | 22.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64f9…cf15backed No | 70c | 19.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.