TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$108,289
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$84,763

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,289 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2eef…eacabacked Yes3c12,021$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.7321429.9%64 W · 150 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8091…f818backed Yes3c5,863$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked No78c5,047$3,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,096.7412232.8%40 W · 82 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes1c4,223$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.1142719.2%82 W · 345 L+23.3wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x604e…f623backed Yes1c3,828$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d67…1a08backed Yes4c3,745$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.117328.8%21 W · 52 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+119.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x020b…98e9backed Yes1c3,660$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ab…e99cbacked Yes6c3,442$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.053151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes0c3,072$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51688.8%6 W · 62 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+52.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes1c2,675$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.185535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8965…1c4ebacked Yes3c1,672$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b42…229ebacked Yes2c1,275$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.710322.3%23 W · 80 L+8.6wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+59.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x860d…6071backed Yes42c1,258$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.3224732.4%80 W · 167 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1057222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes64c964.16$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.8266222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes4c858.12$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.488915.7%14 W · 75 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-24.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes8c816.76$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5436113.3%48 W · 313 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe953…a4f9backed Yes16c741.12$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.259330.1%28 W · 65 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2637…26e1backed Yes3c704.54$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.57616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-76.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e43…b356backed Yes2c702.46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.517818.5%33 W · 145 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes55c697.35$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.5831621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No30c632.82$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.5362539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes29c586.13$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.2850319.5%98 W · 405 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes48c571.38$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.022,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4257…7d12backed Yes7c557.19$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes5c541.36$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.025598.2%46 W · 513 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8e6…0389backed Yes3c531.47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cb9…669dbacked Yes3c518.41$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4616…a910backed No64c488.39$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.1633670.2%236 W · 100 L+22.5wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7455…0432backed Yes16c459.48$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.685236.5%19 W · 33 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+30.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d4c…2e02backed No59c403.58$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.729728.9%28 W · 69 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10ea…02edbacked Yes3c333.27$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1813511.9%16 W · 119 L+0.3wins0.00per pick12cpaid+37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0074…075fbacked Yes13c326.5$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.39475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cbc…6e47backed Yes4c308.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes66c299.98$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.7942628.2%120 W · 306 L-38.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaf5f…07febacked Yes63c291.22$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.73837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x981b…c11cbacked Yes11c248.51$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.525538.2%21 W · 34 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No45c210.23$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.65040%20 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+66.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No60c208.18$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.0526461.7%163 W · 101 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76fa…3ff4backed Yes76c200$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1525418.5%10 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-37.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6688…fdcebacked Yes69c199.99$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.79425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1eb8…b468backed Yes73c199.76$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.962142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes59c176.36$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.999619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No43c152.05$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.6779735.9%286 W · 511 L-34.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes27c130.36$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3940016.8%67 W · 333 L-0.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes46c103.34$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0639518.7%74 W · 321 L-57.0wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-60.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes49c100.52$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2759225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf366…425ebacked Yes62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.86127.9%17 W · 44 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbad…9e4bbacked Yes69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+49.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1aa6…0b79backed Yes65c99.99$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.28033.8%27 W · 53 L-8.1wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa222…7d3cbacked No42c99.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.86825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+344.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbf0…fdbebacked Yes69c99.64$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7520532.7%67 W · 138 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes63c86.97$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5222926.6%61 W · 168 L-0.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef34…9644backed Yes54c83.2$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.18366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+60.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa920…a07abacked No34c82.12$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.133438.2%13 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+60.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9439…9d6fbacked Yes60c79.66$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.016344.4%28 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9a…4373backed Yes68c78.61$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.672532%8 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+92%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes40c74.09$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.336216.1%10 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-66.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No55c73.7$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.923268.8%22 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes66c69.78$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9211421.9%25 W · 89 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes67c61.5$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1410840.7%44 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f62…90a2backed No41c61.15$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.11827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes36c55.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0750828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed No72c52.93$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8713038.5%50 W · 80 L-11.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed No64c50.89$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1711430.7%35 W · 79 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6938…b3ddbacked No55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41c6…4577backed Yes69c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.460%0 W · 6 L-3.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6e82…77acbacked Yes55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.715925.2%40 W · 119 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9955…85afbacked No38c49.29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5318357.9%106 W · 77 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x915e…6f4bbacked Yes77c46.22$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9205…2aa7backed Yes46c45.94$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.35425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes52c42.22$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.973063.3%19 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No61c38.44$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.031450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee38…fd31backed No76c34.98$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.313971.8%28 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd399…d13ebacked Yes69c34.45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ce1…e827backed Yes59c33.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7748…58d7backed No34c31.54$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.693756.8%21 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3fe…8a8dbacked Yes66c30.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.982313%3 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-54%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c4…1096backed Yes41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.31827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bd0…046fbacked No35c29.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.49425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb220…5f71backed Yes72c29.15$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1ee…3259backed Yes70c28.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes69c24.61$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.04540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9443…7c5dbacked Yes62c23.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.922725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff9…0141backed Yes70c20.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4eb5…7588backed No69c20.77$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.532951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No69c18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6514575.9%110 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89cc…394dbacked Yes65c17.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.045635.7%20 W · 36 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f2a…260abacked Yes71c14.57$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.