Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x343d057f73d4552e2506d665488135bfab8a41e56a214ead84706f982ddb7303
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 74c | 1,192$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.19 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 918.1$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 28c | 902.67$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 721.89$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 71c | 516.16$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.54 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed No | 80c | 477.48$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.73 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 76c | 399.19$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.06 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 26c | 397.47$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.83 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 338.5$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 30c | 326.78$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 319.95$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.95 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 29c | 304.38$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.46 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 29c | 299.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 28c | 245$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 35c | 235.76$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.71 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 76c | 235.21$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 231.45$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes | 11c | 207.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 197.76$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.02 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 76c | 184.26$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 181$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 41c | 180.73$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 167.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 30c | 148.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 76c | 148.08$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 31c | 146.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 22c | 144.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…298bbacked No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 60c | 133.12$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 68c | 124.58$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 17c | 123.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 62c | 120.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 39c | 115.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 115.19$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 112.2$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 25c | 110.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 13c | 107.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 24c | 107.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 70c | 99.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 14c | 98.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…a4f4backed Yes | 33c | 89.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 73c | 88.11$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 70c | 87.92$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed No | 71c | 86.86$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 86.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 26c | 83.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 71c | 80.94$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 36c | 80.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 22c | 79.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 61c | 67.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 73c | 66.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 65.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 27c | 64.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 76c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 73c | 63.24$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 34c | 60.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 41c | 59.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 58.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 33c | 55.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x935c…fb8fbacked Yes | 22c | 53.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 41c | 51.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 70c | 50.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 60c | 49.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 30c | 48.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 40c | 47.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 41c | 47.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…2ee3backed Yes | 41c | 47.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfb…fd5abacked Yes | 32c | 46.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 71c | 46.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 31c | 46.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 70c | 45.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 69c | 43.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdb…b241backed No | 77c | 40.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes | 28c | 40.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…5a95backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 37.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 75c | 34.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 75c | 31.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 37c | 28.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 38c | 28.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 75c | 26.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 75c | 25.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 74c | 24.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c217backed No | 70c | 21.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x184b…67b2backed No | 76c | 21.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…9feabacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 62c | 19.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.