Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd8d2eb3fb5f6e26fb28ddf8ce0c8095f00683d8b1086a681491bda23209a04b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 58c | 859.46$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.46 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 46c | 844.83$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.87 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 41c | 524.83$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.17 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 50c | 431.22$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.28 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 376.92$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 359.83$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.91 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 339.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 70c | 321.39$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.19 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 67c | 298.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.36 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 42c | 293.76$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.01 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 225.36$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 212.06$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.69 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 55c | 199.97$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.99 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 52c | 197.37$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.41 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 194.13$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 63c | 189.2$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.74 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 28c | 179.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 61c | 158.19$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.2 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 47c | 156.63$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.39 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 57c | 156.37$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.49 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 31c | 148.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 143.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 34c | 128.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 44c | 122.37$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.37 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 33c | 118.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.76 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 114.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 12c | 112$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 28c | 101.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 49c | 95.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 30c | 90.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 11c | 90.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 24c | 89.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 38c | 86.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 86.57$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 57c | 84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 44c | 79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 53c | 78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 25c | 76.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 61c | 71.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 53c | 71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 57c | 70.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 55c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 30c | 67.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 23c | 65.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 61c | 64.2$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 37c | 64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 40c | 63.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 32c | 62.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 46c | 61.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 51c | 60.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 54c | 59.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 59.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ede…a9e9backed No | 45c | 53.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 56c | 53.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfb…fd5abacked Yes | 59c | 51.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…2ee3backed Yes | 40c | 48.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 44c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 64c | 46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 44c | 45.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 71c | 42.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 55c | 42.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 56c | 42.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 40c | 41.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…880abacked Yes | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 56c | 39.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 67c | 37.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 67c | 37.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 65c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Yes | 56c | 35.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 77c | 30.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…5a95backed Yes | 63c | 27.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 53c | 27.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 55c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 63c | 25.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed No | 56c | 24.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbea…d19dbacked Yes | 75c | 23.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 56c | 20.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…83e8backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7968…615abacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 52c | 19.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 68c | 19.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc997…44f1backed Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.