Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d5e59aeee6853ecc4bfda52e972026da0971ed98310d578cd9b024daf021901
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 3c | 6,781$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.15 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 10c | 1,124$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.81 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 73c | 747.3$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.79 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 5c | 312.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 5c | 234.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.51 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 48c | 213.98$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.93 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 27c | 203$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 184.48$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 64c | 177.69$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.41 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…9feabacked Yes | 74c | 174.12$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.45 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 75c | 166.18$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.93 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 36c | 165.49$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 156.34$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 9c | 148.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.84 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 7c | 139.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 51c | 136.09$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 49c | 129.11$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 124.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 14c | 111.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…d79fbacked Yes | 30c | 107$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked No | 39c | 103.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.62 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 28c | 86.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa067…0a3ebacked Yes | 78c | 85$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.95 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 84.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 35c | 84.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 83.43$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 22c | 67.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 32c | 65.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 21c | 64.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 26c | 63.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 66c | 60.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 53c | 57.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 51c | 48.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 53c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 75c | 46.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 73c | 45.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 33c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 41.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 40.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 31c | 40.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 29c | 39.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 36c | 38.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…6534backed Yes | 72c | 34.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 41c | 33.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 71c | 30.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 25.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 75c | 21.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 71c | 21.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked Yes | 72c | 20.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 79c | 18.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x695f…1b67backed Yes | 76c | 17.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.